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Waiting for the Sun.

August 26, 2020

Here I am patiently waiting for the sun to spark back up so that I can finally either prove my contention that the sun directly controls the ENSO regions/oceans, or find out that my contention is wrong. Luckily for me I inherited my mother’s patience. However, over the last several months I thought of another approach.

The new method is to see if the sparse sunspots which occasionally pop up as the minimum approaches its end have a discernible effect on the ENSO 3.4 region. Prior to this I had to wait for the monthly Silso graphs to come out to see how the trend fit in with changes in temps in the 3.4 region, and the MEI graph. The Silso hemispheric graph though only shows what occurred sis months ago due to the 13 month smoothing applied to the graph.

It finally dawned on me to watch and see if a sunspot had a more immediate discernible effect on temps in the 3.4 region. Here is what I have found since then. Here is Tropical Tidbit’s record of the 3.4 region temps, …

At the end of April and into the first several days of May sunspots appeared in the Northern Hemisphere along with one group of spots in the south. Seemingly as a consequence of the northern sunspots temps in the 3.4 region started to drop steeply. Temps then continue to drop until late May.

After the initial groupings of spots in early May there are no more sunspots until the second of July when a group appears high in the northern hemisphere.

Part II …here it is one month since I started this post. Temps in the 3.4 region have zigged and zagged. Once again they are in negative territory. I added a new thought to the sun/ocean concept. I never gave consideration to H-alpha phages. Now I see that they appear to also have an effect similar to the sunspots. So far the combination of recent sunspots and H-alpha phages continue to precede temperature changes in the ENSO 3.4 region.

The last correlation was an H-alpha phage in the north. The last sunspot turned the corner, but the lesser phage area formed a day later. Following this the 3.4 region temps slowed their decline into negative numbers. Temperatures continued to drop. Then the H-alpha phage disappeared 1.5 days ago. Right after that the rate of the downward shift slowed down considerably Here is Tropical Tidbit’s recent 3.4 chart. …

So far, the coincidental correlation between sunspots/H-alpha phages remains unbroken since the end of April. I would forecast that temps will stay flat or even move up slightly until the next sunspot groups appears. I am going to use this post as a page to update how the correlation progresses as the sun comes back to life.

September 4th …a sunspot is due to return in the northern hemisphere of the sun within a day or two. This should cause temps in the 3.4 region to drop down to -1.0 C or slightly lower by the middle of the month. This will be a good test.

Sept 6th …the sunspot faded away before coming into view. Temps in the 3.4 region see sawed a bit ending up in a slight dip. The main ocean surface current is running strong along the Equator. That should continue to drive the impending strong La Nina which is steadily developing. …

Sept 12th …there has been a spot in the south which did not turn into a sunspot, but has held together for about 5 days now. Temps in the 3.4 region stopped dropping at this same time. Since then the graph has moved sideways for those five days. Did this almost sunspot cause temps to stop falling? …

The flow of the westward current at the equator has slowed down over the last 4 days. The cold waters of the developing La Nina have started mixing with local warmer waters instead of streaming fully to the west. Still the tip of the La Nina cold current has stretched most of the way across the Pacific. I expect that there will not be much change in 3.4 region temps until the next group of sunspots show themselves. If the spotless sun continues then temps should rise slightly, especially now that the westwatrd current flow has slowed down.

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