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Comment left at SpaceWeather archive

February 2, 2020

Interesting, I also come to a somewhat similar prediction with the exception that I think the first spotless days will show up around Nov/Dec of 2026. My approach to this is based on a West Coast flood pattern which I think is directly linked to the solar minimum. This entails that in the winter of 2026/27 the ENSO regions will move into negative conditions, the sunspot count will drop down low enough for the first streak of spotless days to appear just like in 2016/17. Lastly, the West Coast will get hit with strong ARs leading to areas of the West Coast, or the entire West Coast to experience heavy rains/floods just like what happened in 2016/17 when the spillway and emergency spillway at Oroville dam in California were destroyed. A quarter million people had to evacuate from the Sacramento Valley.

I predicted in March of 2014 that the 2016/17 flood would take place along with the other necessary elements of solar/ENSO conditions. I expect the next similar pattern to occur in the winter of 2026/27, meaning that the heart of the next minimum should be in 2028/29 very similar to what occurred over this ongoing solar minimum. Where the solar minimum is defined as the first streak of spotless days up till the point where the sun sparks back up. …

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