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Correlation between MEI, UAH, and C4 study vs GISS

The C4 graph is from a post made on Science News. I noticed right off that there was correlation between this graph, satellite temp graphs, the MEI, and sunspots. For this post I am referencing the correlation between the C4 study graph, the MEI, and the satellite monthly graph from UAH, although the RSS monthly would also fit in as equal to UAH, as the temp profile is the same between the two.

The goal of this exercise is to show the disparity between the GISS temp graph and UAH/RSS, and the C4 graph. The comparison between the C4 and UAH graphs will use the ambient air trend line shown on the C4 graph. The C4 graph starts in the year 1999. The MEI is at -1.1C, and UAH in 1999 is sitting below the 0.0C trend line for most of that year. In early 2000 the MEI rises off of the low and turns slightly positive. UAH correspondingly rises off of its low, and also moves positive. The C4 graph rises as a result in 2000. Entering into 2001, the MEI again moves from negative to positive, and UAH does the same. The result for C4 is another step up in the growth rate of the C4 grasses.

In 2002/03 the C4 drops in both years. The MEI starts positive, then drops through the first 5 months of 2002. After which the MEI rises to 1.2C in the second half of 2002, and into 2003. Mid 2003 UAH shows a drop, and the MEI also drops in mid 2003. This appeared to contradict my premise until I looked up temp data for Minnesota where the C4 study took place. In both 2002/03 temps were below average in Minnesota. That explains the drop in growth for C4 in 2002/03.

The C4 graph then moves up for both 2004 and 2005. The MEI also moves up steadily all through 2004 to a peak in early 2005 before dropping off in 2005, and ending negative at end of the year 2005. UAH starts 2004at a moderately high peak then plunges globally by mid year. Minnesota bucks the global trend once again and stays warm through 2004. Global temps rise in mid 2004 and all through 2005. The C4 plants thrive with the warmth as a result. Then in 2006/07/08 the C4 graph starts down in 2006 and plunges in 2007/08. This is the solar minimum entering on the scene. The MEI moves negative through mid 2006. Then rises to a peak through the fall/winter of 2006/07. You can see that the UAH follows all of that as it drops early on in 2006 before eventually peaking in January 2007.

Now the plunge starts. The MEI in early 2007 plunges to -1.4C into 2008, while UAH also plunges from January 2007 through to mid 2008. The C4 grasses drop to their lowest point on the C4 graph as a result, cold kills. C4 then rises a bit in 2008 and 2009 as the MEI moves from negative to almost positive in late 2008, and then spikes through all of 2009. UAH moves up in late 2008, drops through early 2009, and then rises steadily for the rest of 2009. In 2010 C4 rises slightly above 2009 and drops a bit in 2011. Both years are still at a low on the C4 graph. On the MEI 2010 starts at an El Nino peak then quickly plunges to 2.0C by around May. The La Nina then lasts into early 2012. UAH peaks high at the start of 2010, then falls steadily to negative temps by early 2011. Again the C4 graph follows all of this as the C4 growth rate stays minimal through those several years.

Finally, starting in early 2012 the C4 graph starts a steady climb for the next 4 years through 2015. Both the MEI and UAH clearly show why that happens as the next large El Nino is now in the pipeline working its magic around the globe. The very last piece of this story is C4 drops a bit in 2016 as the MEI moves off of the El Nino peak to a slight negative at years end, and the UAH drops rapidly from the highest peak on the graph in January 2016 shedding 0.6C by May 2016. So as you can see the C4 rate of growth dances in unison with the ENSO regions and UAH global temp changes.

Conclusion and main purpose of this exercise, The GISS LOTI graph (not shown) does not show the same correlation with any of the above. The GISS graph shows a steadily rising temp profile from around 2000 onward through to 2017. Note that neither the C4 graph, the MEI, nor the UAH graph show a steadily rising graphic profile between the years 1999 to 2016. The only conclusion which can be made is that either the 3 graphs (C4, MEI, UAH) are wrong, or GISS is wrong.



UAH_LT_1979_thru_April_2018_v6.jpg JPEG Image 2340 × 1350 pixels Scaled 70


My Mongrel, Rikki Tikki

Rikki was 6 months old in this picture. He was a king of dogs. I could walk him, and his mom in San Francisco with no leash on. They knew exactly what I expected of them at all times.Rikki and Me

Herbal Medicinal comment

  1. Hello, I happened across your site when looking for recipes for my Rangpur limes. I have also looked through at other ideas posted here, very nice site.

    I was looking at another post of yours when I noticed several comments, where it was mentioned that several people were suffering from acid reflux, and IBD syndrome. I am here to say something about both here, but primary from recent personal experience I can say something of great interest regarding acid reflux problems. In the last several months I have had a need for medical services. Primary was to remove a fleshy growth, but I was also having severe upper gastric/stomach problems. The doctor stated that he would have to perform some scope work after taking care of the fleshy growth, and then he gave me a flyer on heartburn with advice on foods and eating habits to abide by. The flyer was produced by the company which makes Prevacid. That would have been the recommended drug to use after the diagnosis was made on the stomach.

    Here is what has happened in the several months since then, as I await the first minor operation. Spring came late in my area this season. Ten days ago I started to shuffle my plants and trees around as Spring had arrived. I have to use a cheap greenhouse to maintain the Rangpur lime alive through the cold of the winter. I place other plants still alive in the greenhouse as well for the winter. I had a German chamomile which survived and is not magnificent in size and bloom. I also had some cilantro. This comment is about the cilantro.

    The cilantro started flowering about 6 weeks ago. Last week as I was moving plants outside, I noticed multiple green berries on the cilantro. Touching them released a strong, attractive fragrance. Intrigues, I picked several and tasted them as I have a strong restaurant background. I though that they may go well with chicken, or with other foods. So I ate several. To my surprise within 10 minutes I felt relief from my severe upper gastric issue. Then I went online to look up a site which had herbal/medicinal information. To my surprise cilantro was listed as having the ability to aid in upper gastric problems, as well as for stomach issues. It also had other benefits listed as well. So I started chewing 2 or 3 berries several times a day. Four days later the acid reflux was gone, upper gastric burn gone, stomach upset gone. Against the advice of the Prevacid diet warnings I could eat a late dinner, drink half a pot of coffee (not actually recommended for sleeping), and then go to sleep soundly. Obviously, I needed to cut my coffee back, and have done so; but the green cilantro berries have aced my stomach problems. I feel GREAT.

    Lastly, when I go in for the surgery next week, I get to tell the doctor that I will not need to take the drug Prevacid, for the rest of my life; nor will I need the invasive gut inspection. Almost unbelievable! I have had to munch a few more of the berries as I still like my coffee. They seem to make me a bit sleepy/tired for a day or two depending on how many/how often. I found myself laying down several times a day, and immediately dropping off to sleep for an hour or two. About 12 hours after not eating the green berries, I then felt awake and strong.

    ps: …I left this comment here as the other post was closed. Also of note, the herbal site also had information on an herbal remedy for IBD. I will look up and add the name of that tomorrow; and thanks for the recipe using Rangpur limes. I got 120 pounds of fruit this last season. …

2015 Missed ENSO Prediction

Interesting, and another tough of synchronicity. Just one hour earlier I was on the phone with my brother. I had been explaining the current ENSO state to him. I had noted that in watching equatorial wind patterns over the last month in particular, there had been recent positive changes in the strength of the easterlies. This suggested to me that the wind is likely going to affect the current state of the positive ENSO that could lead to a negating of the growing warm spots. The last 4 days have seen an increase in this pattern, with increasing wind flows coming from the north and the south. The north easterly flow is much stronger. It has been slowly but steadily dropping closer to the Equator. If this continues, then over the next week I would expect a reversal of the building El Nino, and I might get my 3rd forecast correct for a peak in conditions for this month. It is fascinating to watch this unfold.

Calif/PNW Flood Prediction

Samurai…all or most all flood events in the Pacific Northwest have struck during the depths of a La Nina. Examples are 2008/09 weak, 1996/97 very big warm rain took the snow off of the mountains, 1984/85 weak as was the La Nina, 1964/65 the most damage of all as we found out why continued massive clear cutting was a bad idea, 1955/56 also very big rain event, 1946/47 minor flooding, 1937/38 a moderate flood. All of those took place during a La Nina event. This is part of my reasoning why I forecast an upcoming La Nina, a flood most likely to be a large event in the winter of 2016/17, or at the latest in the following winter 2017/18, and the prospect that the next solar minimum will occur earlier than thought either side of 2018. So far I have correctly forecast every move on the MEI over the last 12 months. The last bit is to see if I am right that this month will be the peak of the current positive ENSO. If correct on this, then I can move on with my thoughts on when the next valley will occur. I already have that position noted.

Comment on Warm Periods 4/2015

If you take a look at past Warm Periods, then notice how there is always a limit as to how high the warming reaches before it stops warming. After that point, even if the Warm Period carries on for another century or longer there is none or very little further rise in temperature values. To my eye, all of the previous Warm Periods show this feature. In that regard, it is very unlikely that there will be any further rise in the current Warm trend, even if lasts through the rest of this century before receding into the depths of the next cooling trend. Once again, historical data should take precedence over the warmists beliefs as to what is most likely to happen over the next century.


Plus solar cycle length at minimum thought, ===================================

There is something else to note in that string of cycles. I mentioned this once before, and I still think the thought has merit. I noticed that during the intervals of the minima during those 6 cycles, the footprint of how many years the cycle stays at minimum was shorter than the minima of the 6 previous solar cycles by half approximately. During the period which you first point to the years at minimum is around 2 or less. In the previous 6 solar cycles, the minimum lasted approximately 4 years. The last minimum in 2008/09 returned to the longer minimum period of 4 years. Could it be that part of the natural warming is due to the Sun spending less years at minimum, and that cooling occurs when the minimum lasts the extra several years? In other words, 6 solar cycles of warming is then followed by 6 solar cycles of cooling. The depth of the cooling as well as the intensity of the warming would be influenced by the total current state of the climate system.

Quake Prediction 3/2015

Except that there may be a common denominator between then and now. Tambora erupted during the Dalton GM. The Laki Fires happened just prior to the onset of the Dalton. The New Madrid fault had multiple large events between 1811/12 during the Dalton. The four known older large quakes on the New Madrid were in 1699, the end of the Maunder. Then 1450, the beginning of the Sporer, and then 900 which is during the MWP., but the JG/U graph clearly shows a sharp drop which could be a gm. That one was a quick moderate drop that looks like it only lasts around 15 years before returning to warming. Then there is a quake listed as approximately around 300 AD. On the JG/U 2K graph at around 290 AD and lasting a full 60 years into the mid 300s there is a deep plunge which looks similar to the Maunder. Also, several of the big Mexican volcanoes had large eruptions during the Dalton as did some other well known volcanoes. And here we are close to the next grand minimum. The next 20 years could be a period of above normal activity.