Skip to content

Waiting for the Sun.

Here I am patiently waiting for the sun to spark back up so that I can finally either prove my contention that the sun directly controls the ENSO regions/oceans, or find out that my contention is wrong. Luckily for me I inherited my mother’s patience. However, over the last several months I thought of another approach.

The new method is to see if the sparse sunspots which occasionally pop up as the minimum approaches its end have a discernible effect on the ENSO 3.4 region. Prior to this I had to wait for the monthly Silso graphs to come out to see how the trend fit in with changes in temps in the 3.4 region, and the MEI graph. The Silso hemispheric graph though only shows what occurred sis months ago due to the 13 month smoothing applied to the graph.

It finally dawned on me to watch and see if a sunspot had a more immediate discernible effect on temps in the 3.4 region. Here is what I have found since then. Here is Tropical Tidbit’s record of the 3.4 region temps, …

At the end of April and into the first several days of May sunspots appeared in the Northern Hemisphere along with one group of spots in the south. Seemingly as a consequence of the northern sunspots temps in the 3.4 region started to drop steeply. Temps then continue to drop until late May.

After the initial groupings of spots in early May there are no more sunspots until the second of July when a group appears high in the northern hemisphere.

Part II …here it is one month since I started this post. Temps in the 3.4 region have zigged and zagged. Once again they are in negative territory. I added a new thought to the sun/ocean concept. I never gave consideration to H-alpha phages. Now I see that they appear to also have an effect similar to the sunspots. So far the combination of recent sunspots and H-alpha phages continue to precede temperature changes in the ENSO 3.4 region.

The last correlation was an H-alpha phage in the north. The last sunspot turned the corner, but the lesser phage area formed a day later. Following this the 3.4 region temps slowed their decline into negative numbers. Temperatures continued to drop. Then the H-alpha phage disappeared 1.5 days ago. Right after that the rate of the downward shift slowed down considerably Here is Tropical Tidbit’s recent 3.4 chart. … https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

So far, the coincidental correlation between sunspots/H-alpha phages remains unbroken since the end of April. I would forecast that temps will stay flat or even move up slightly until the next sunspot groups appears. I am going to use this post as a page to update how the correlation progresses as the sun comes back to life.

September 4th …a sunspot is due to return in the northern hemisphere of the sun within a day or two. This should cause temps in the 3.4 region to drop down to -1.0 C or slightly lower by the middle of the month. This will be a good test.

Sept 6th …the sunspot faded away before coming into view. Temps in the 3.4 region see sawed a bit ending up in a slight dip. The main ocean surface current is running strong along the Equator. That should continue to drive the impending strong La Nina which is steadily developing. … https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png

Sept 12th …there has been a spot in the south which did not turn into a sunspot, but has held together for about 5 days now. Temps in the 3.4 region stopped dropping at this same time. Since then the graph has moved sideways for those five days. Did this almost sunspot cause temps to stop falling? … https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/solar-images/goes#GOES-17-5

The flow of the westward current at the equator has slowed down over the last 4 days. The cold waters of the developing La Nina have started mixing with local warmer waters instead of streaming fully to the west. Still the tip of the La Nina cold current has stretched most of the way across the Pacific. I expect that there will not be much change in 3.4 region temps until the next group of sunspots show themselves. If the spotless sun continues then temps should rise slightly, especially now that the westwatrd current flow has slowed down.

Prelude to Waiting for the Sun

From comments just made on WUWT after questions were posed to me about a claim of mine.

goldminor

There was a change in surface wind patterns to the west of the tip of South America back around mid 2016. I made note of that at the time in a comment at that time. I stated that if this pattern holds then it would gradually lead to a cooling which would travel north up the coast of South America. That is exactly what has happened. It was at that point when I started saving daily screenshots from earthnull of that spot. I have a daily record of that area ever since then which tells the story in screenshots.

Martin Cropp

Goldminor
What was the change in the wind pattern you observed, and any idea of the reason.Reply

  • goldminor The change was that prior to mid 2016 the typical surface wind pattern down there would push warm air southeasterly through Drakes Passage from a northerly point as high as 20 degrees south latitude. At least just about every time where I would look at that region that is what I would see. Those winds mainly went directly through Drakes Passage. Then I noticed a shift where the surface winds in this region started moving due east directly into South America. A portion of those winds then started moving north up the west coast of SA just above the tip of SA. After observing this for several weeks it dawned on me that I was witnessing a real change that might well continue on for some time, and that is exactly what has happened to this day. This is the spot which I have been observing ever since then … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-83.23,-39.22,672/loc=-85.480,-40.647
  • The consequences of the change was that the surface winds were pushing cold air from the south off of Antarctica which would then move up the west side of SA. It also meant that the warm air flow moving to the southeast was ended. I reasoned that this would also gradually mean a change in colder surface waters also moving north up the coast due to the change in the surface winds. As to the reason why, I would hazard a guess that it has to do with my concept of excess sunspots in a given hemisphere of the sun driving temp changes in the ENSO region with the mechanism or part of the mechanism being that this leads to a change in wind patterns, and maybe overall pressure changes in the atmosphere which could cause surface winds to be redirected. That is as good as a guess as I can muster.

Joel O’Bryan

???? What kind of voodoo science is that????
So the equatorial Pacific count sunspots to arc minute accuracy?Reply

  • goldminor This is my voodoo science. My base concept is that the excess sunspots in a given hemisphere lead to temp changes in the ENSO region. I came across this by melding the chart of the MEI with the Silso excess sunspot on my inner blackboard. It took quite awhile to grasp how this fit together, but I finally developed a reasonably good picture of it over the years. The beginning of this was that it appeared obvious to me as well as to others around here that there was some connection between sunspots and temp changes on our planet. But it was a very elusive connection to make. It would look good for a bit, and then the correlation would break off. I gave up several times over the years thinking that I was fooling myself. Then on a 3rd try at cracking this I finally realized that the correlation had to do with what hemisphere of the sun had the greater amount of sunspots.
  • The question is am I seeing this correctly. So here is some interesting recent observations which I have been meaning to detail lately. Right at the end of April and into early May A sunspot group appeared in the northern hemisphere. Look at what happend in the 3.4 region in the beginning of May. Temps started dropping in the 3.4 region, … https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
  • Now follow the 3.4 graph down to the end of May where there is an uptick in temps in the 3.4 region. On the 4th of June a sunspot came into view in the south, and spent 12 days crossing in the souhern hemisphere. Note how temps in the 3.4 region once again rise into positive numbers. Then on the 5th of June a northern sunspot appears, and by the 11th of June the 3.4 region starts cooling. That sunspot only lasts for 3 days before fading away, temps stop dropping in the 3.4 region and move sideways for a week+ before spiking back up around the 22nd of June as another southern sunspot appears.
  • On the 29th a fairly large sunspot group appears back in the north, then a second group appears in the north, and as you can see from the 3.4 graph temps have steadily dropped once again. I had never realized that I could use daily sunspot info to assess these changes. The Silso excess chart is a 13 month smoothed chart. Silso’s excess ssn chart is only showing up to December 2019 at the moment. That means that I was not able to assess where things stood in the present until someone over at Spaceweathe Live pointed out to me that I can view the daily changes here., … https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2020/08/08/dayobs
  • And much to my surprise I think that this shows that there is a fairly quick response to changes in sunspot positions and temp changes in the 3.4 region. This is pretty exciting as it brings my concept up to the point where temp changes in the the 3.4 region can be readily assessed according to this method. How is that for voodoo science? I have been thinking of writing a WP post which I will name “Waiting for the Sun”. Fortunately for me I inherited my mother’s patience.

Postscript to “A short look … @major crossroads …” post.

I ended the post from 2014 with the thought that I felt confident in my prediction for the winter of 2016/17 to be an above average rain season. It was quite a drenching for some large areas of California, and above average for Oregon and Washington. The first group of spotless days on the sun started late in 2016. Then the ENSO regions went negative, and those are the two main factors which cause large atmospheric rivers to form up in the Pacific before they slam into the West Coast of the US, mainly on the Pacific Northwest. Although I also see many examples of where heavy winters in the northwest are followed by above average rains in Southern California in the following year. So there is more to this picture then the Pacific Northwest storms, and 2016/17 became another year of import for my life in years ending in 6.

Getting this entire prediction correct gave me great confidence in trusting the working of my inner mind, and it’s ability to resolve puzzles/problems at times. In the years since the winter of 2016/17 I finally hashed out some problematic details of how the solar/enso/atmosphere concept works, and that allowed me to understand why I had missed some earlier forecasts on the direction of the ENSO regions. I had thought that negative/La Nina conditions would have developed in 2018. Obviously that did not happen, but now I see why. That is a great step forward.

I also feel very capable now of putting my thoughts into other areas of scientific interest where I might find something of further interest. I have several other fragments of knowledge/understanding which could blossom out under the right conditions. Similar to how that one fragment of knowledge of a possible flood cycle led me to find this warm/cool phase interaction between the sun and the oceans. While at the same time the entire planet appears on the verge of some major upheaval. Interesting times we live in.

A successful ENSO forecast

On Feb 1st I made a simple forecast in a comment on WUWT in order to mark the start of my year for show and tell. Here was the comment, “@ Javier …forecast for a negative ENSO starting around April/May of this year.”. This forecast was just proven true today as Tropical Tidbits shows the 3.4 region on the zero trend line. … https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png undefined

Here is my basic forecast for the rest of this year in a comment made earlier today. This forecast covers sunspot progression as the minimum ends, expected value of UAH satellite temp data by end of August, and the value for the 3.4 ENSO region.

I was asked this question by Allan MACrae, “… ALLAN MACRAE Goldminor wrote 1Feb2020:
“@ Javier …forecast for a negative ENSO starting around April/May of this year.” Good call. Was this your forecast or someone else’s? What was your methodology or source for this prediction? …”.

Here was my answer.

“This is my prediction from 2015, and my more current updated forecast on Feb 1st. My method for analyzing when temp shifts will take place, and the sign of the change is based on which hemisphere of the sun is the more active with sunspots. I expect groups of sunspots to begin appearing around July. That from July to September sunspots will still be intermittent, and then become more regular in the last 1/4 of the year. That is a forecast which I made over at Spaceweather in December.

The discussion was about what month should be considered as the minimum, and how abruptly would the minimum end. I was of the opinion that there would be a minimum of 150 spotless days for 2020 which was contrary to what the author of the post thought. My reasoning for that number stemmed from noting the 800+ spotless days from the previous minimum. Current number for spotless days at the end of 2019 were only 636. That said to me that the final numbers should be much closer to 800 at a minimum, especially given what the trend of the Oulo daily graph shows. I read the Oulo graph as suggesting another longish minimum similar to the length of the 2008/09 minimum.

I also stated that the first half of 2020 would have the most spotless days with the second half being the restart towards the max, and the gradual end of spotless days. So far most of the few sunspots this year have been in the northern hemisphere with occasional southern sunspots of late. If the northern hemisphere of the sun remains dominant in sunspot count, then the ENSO regions will swiftly respond by moving towards a la Nina state. I expect the northern hemisphere of the sun to be mostly dominant for sunspot count for the next 16 years. As a result I would expect to see the ENSO regions strongly favor negative temps. In the near term I think that we will see Dr Spencer’s UAH graph drop to the zero trend line by August, and then drop into negative numbers through the end of the year. The ENSO 3.4 should read around -1 C at the end of the year. That is how I read the tea leaves from my solar/ocean theory.

This year is show and tell time for my theory. Now I will find out what nature thinks about my thoughts.”

Note that sea surface temps at the equator are cooling. Thirteen days ago that green stripe was a tiny dot of cooling. Interesting times lay ahead as the globe prepares to cool.

February Warming in Siberia

The first pic is Feb 1st followed by the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th, 13th 19th 21st, and the 28th. The other days of February are mostly similar with surface winds moving into Siberia, thus warming it up substantially in large areas. All from … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-258.75,66.32,672/loc=94.389,62.565

Harvest Time

Picture 137Time to harvest the Rangpur limes. The tree should be close to putting its blooms on soon. So this is the greenhouse, a double greenhouse as I placed a sheet of greenhouse plastic across the roof which drapes all the way to the ground on this one side. On the one side is two of my younger dwarf peaches getting ready to flower. The big dwarf is in behind the Rangpur.

The honey tangerine trees are placed snugly up against my unit so the warmth from the unit protects them through out the winter.

 
 
 
 
 

Comment left at SpaceWeather archive

Interesting, I also come to a somewhat similar prediction with the exception that I think the first spotless days will show up around Nov/Dec of 2026. My approach to this is based on a West Coast flood pattern which I think is directly linked to the solar minimum. This entails that in the winter of 2026/27 the ENSO regions will move into negative conditions, the sunspot count will drop down low enough for the first streak of spotless days to appear just like in 2016/17. Lastly, the West Coast will get hit with strong ARs leading to areas of the West Coast, or the entire West Coast to experience heavy rains/floods just like what happened in 2016/17 when the spillway and emergency spillway at Oroville dam in California were destroyed. A quarter million people had to evacuate from the Sacramento Valley.

I predicted in March of 2014 that the 2016/17 flood would take place along with the other necessary elements of solar/ENSO conditions. I expect the next similar pattern to occur in the winter of 2026/27, meaning that the heart of the next minimum should be in 2028/29 very similar to what occurred over this ongoing solar minimum. Where the solar minimum is defined as the first streak of spotless days up till the point where the sun sparks back up. … https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2019/04/10/experts-predict-the-solar-cycle/comment-page-1/?unapproved=8290&moderation-hash=0767bb6dec2e68482b52621f75dcb874#comment-8290

Earthnull pics 12 25 2019

From … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-128.04,36.41,672/loc=-129.443,42.984

From the top 10 hPa, 70 hPa, 250 hPa, 500 hPa temps, and 500 hPa wind.

 

earth 10 hPa 12 25 19earth 70 hPa 12 25 19earth 250 hPa 12 25 19earth 500 hPa T 12 25 19earth 500 hPa 12 25 19

Sun/ENSO/Atmospheric Temps Correlation

Now that I have stirred the pot it is time that I redo the original 2015 Sun/Ocean/ENSO in order to have a more coherent and readable story. This will be short for now as I just want to get a page out that makes it easier to grasp what I am seeing. Here are the two graphs which tell the story. The first is Silso’s hemispheric excess ssn graph, and the other is the current MEI v2. … https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

and Silso … here is the easy part. Silso shows that the south solar hemisphere sunspots become dominant in early 2013 (the last big red spike on the graph), and stays dominant into early 2015. The peak is around June 2014. Now look at the MEI above. It turns positive in early 2014 then the MEI finally reaches its peak around the middle of 2015. Global temps then peak in Feb 2016.MEI ...12 1 18 last one before change

MEI ...1 1 20 Let’s take a look back at the positive MEI which ends sharply towards the end of 2016. That happens because Silso goes ‘green’ around March of 2015. It then takes approximately 8 months for the MEI to move into negative temps at the end of 2015. Global temps plunge swiftly at this point, but part of that would be due to the natural rebound of surface waters in the ENSO regions after a strong El Nino peak. Global temps continue to steadily decline until the ‘green’ necks down in 2017, almost fading away. That is what leads to the slight warm rebound in global temps., imo.

Earthnullschool Puzzle

I use earthnull on a daily basis to observe weather patterns globally. For some reason they made a drastic change to their sst anomaly display on the 23rd of December 2019. Here is what that looks like. The top pic is 12/22/2019, the lower is 12/23/2019. The other 2 pics above are ENSO on the 22nd and 23rd.earth Gulf Stream ssta 2 22 19earth Gulf Stream ssta 12 23 19