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comment lost? 7 27 17 WUWT

Imo, the red team could also argue the case from the standpoint of asking why the many predictions made by the blue team have failed over the decades as well as arguing science based understandings of the physics. The science involved in climate science can be endlessly debated in large part because there is much that science does not know at this time concerning the many interacting drivers which comprise climate shifts.

I would think that attacking the warmists talking points of the dangers which they claim are headed our way would be a potent tool to use against their fixed position of settled science, as if everything is known about what drives the climate of this planet. This argument would also be something that would be more readily understood by reasonably educated people, who might follow the debate. Also, bringing up topics such as SLR, more severe storms, unprecedented Arctic melting, etc would aid in exposing the argument that the warmists have tampered with the data. The use of historical data to disprove claims of unprecedented changes in natural systems would be a strong argument, and also one that even an average person could grasp.


Solar Flood Pattern comment 6 10 17

Once again a post and the following comments sparked a thought in me which has led to as insight. An insight which I think has merit for holding further clues to the answers we all seek. I reead the comments around 1 am this morning. As I did a new thought popped up in regards to the graphs which I have viewed hundreds of times before in attempts to find clues/meaning of some significance. So here we go.

As some of you likely know, I am interested in the possible flood cycle pattern of the West Coast of US. This is the base which has allowed me to gain footing in the world of climate change. I also have several memories from my younger days of the major floods of 1955/56 and 1964/65. Wim Rost’s 11:38 pm comment was the spark for this. His comment on the importance of understanding regional influences was the key as I have come to think the same in that regard. It made me think of the summer of 1957. In that year my father took my brother and myself on our first fishing trip for steelhead on the Trinity River in Northern California, an exciting venture for us boys.

We went in late July as that is when the earliest of the runs would form up to move in off of the ocean. The weather was hotter than a firecracker, the hottest weather which I had ever felt with temps hitting into 110 to 116 degrees F. It is the heat/hot spell that is key here. The flood of 1955/56 had struck around 20 months prior to this heat wave hitting the same region. That made me wonder “Can I find other examples of a similar pattern of flood winter followed by heat wave within 2 years”. The answer is a resounding Yes. I should have seen this before, but the dots never connected. Here is what I see.

Almost every solar minimum produces an above average wet winter on the West Coast which will range anywhere from moderately heavy to flood level rains as we saw in this last winter. The process is solar minimum + heavyrains/floods+within 2 years of this there will be a temperature peak on global temps. To follow along with the following references please open a copy of the UAH temp graph as that is what I am using here. UAH starts in 1979 so the mid 1970s solar minimum is missing. There is also something there in the mid 1970s which may be unique, will have to think further on that.

The start then is the winter of 1985/86 and solar minimum = low temps on UAH and moderately heavy rains in that winter= leads to a peak temp on UAH in Dec/Jan 1988. Next is the winter of 1996/97 +solar minimum= low UAH temp + semi biblical rains/flooding= leads to a temp peak around March 1998. The next is 2007/08 close to solar minimum= UAH low temp + moderately heavy rains/light flooding= leads to a peak temp around February of 2010.

Now going back prior to UAH I went to the Hadley[1850/2010} to see if I could see the same pattern, and sure enough it can be plainly seen. Working backwards in time the winter of 1964/65 close to solar minimum= low temp on Hadley+ massive flooding= leads to a temp peak around Jul/Aug 1966 and an interesting quick zig zag afterwards. Next is the winter of 1955/56 close to solar minimum= low temp on Hadley+severe flooding= similar to 1964/65 rapid upswing in temps, an initial temp peak around Jul/Aug {my steelhead fishing trip} 1957, although this is also followed by a quick zig zag and a higher peak around 6 months later. Next is the winter of 1946/47 {this is the pivot point to cooling 1946/47 to 1976/77, imo} several years after solar minimum but right after a rapid rise to a max, an equally quick drop occurs close towards minimal conditions= low temp on Hadley+heavy rains and moderate area flooding=temp peak on Hadley around Sept of 1948. An interesting peak as otherwise temps drop steadily from early 1945 to early 1951. Looking back further just exposed another clue to this puzzle. I have been assuming solar/flood correlation, although there is to a certain degree. However, now that I look into the 1930s and the 1920s I see what now appears to be a 9 year cycle running through all of this. In both decades, which is the main warming trend 1915/16 to 1946/47, the wet/flood winter cycle strikes after the solar minimum by 2 to 4 years, but always on a solar dip/Hadley low temp which is then followed by a further Hadley temp peak less then 2 years later, actually around 18 to 20 months from what I can see. Could this be a lunar cycle as a main component? I will need more time to look further back. Plus several other avenues of thought have come up as well.

Lastly, what does all of this portend for the future next several years? Is this last heavy rain winter indicating a new temp peak around mid to late 2018? Or will there be one more heavy winter coming up at the end of this year along with a subsequent drop of temps on UAH between now and then? Otherwise, if Feb 2017 is presumed to be the low temp point/flood pattern, then late 2018 would be a high temp point. That doesn’t seem right to me as the solar minimum is still approaching, but the solar minimum may now shift to arriving after the wet/flood pattern, as in 1920s/30s/40s solar minimum arrives first followed by the wet/flood pattern, 1950s/60s/70s/80s/90s/00s solar minimum and wet/flood pattern very close to each other, and now the pattern may have changed to wet/flood comes first followed by solar minimum. That is something to watch in the years to come.

Temps should be shown as dropping on the monthly UAH in the months ahead, or this might mean that we are about to see a step change in global temps in the near future, or this could also be pointing to one more heavy winter coming up. That would fit with historical patterns as there are typically 1 or 2 moderate to strong winters prior to any main flood winter, and every flood winter is followed by a moderate to strong winter. I stated this 3.5 years ago when I first was putting the pieces together on these potential correlations. The winter of 2017/18 as the main winter in this cycle would mean a temp peak would show up around mid to late 2018. The end for now. There will be a bit more to add later on.

American Scientist comment

Depending on surface wind flows, the Mediterranean Sea can also add warmth to the continent. I noticed a good example of that last year when viewing earthnullschool. Mid Europe, France in particular, was experiencing a heat wave. Looking at earthnullschool I could see that the surface winds were blowing northward from No Africa, crossing the Mediterranean, and moving into Europe. That added a lot of the warmth which was being felt at the time.

Here is an example of the exact opposite happening right now. Note the winds moving southward across Europe, and into the Mediterranean and No Africa……

As a result of those winds note the very average temps at different locales using this site……

I was thinking of something that is related, earlier today. Isn’t any warming most likely a simple matter of having a greater level of positive ENSO region conditions versus negative ENSO regions over a 30 year cyclic pattern? That is what I see when viewing the MEI long term graph.

The positive ENSO conditions move masses of moist warmth air that are then carried to other parts of the globe. Any region which gets covered by the moving warm mass builds up heat during the day, as the blanket above limits the ability to shed the daily incoming solar energy. This is how heat builds up in the system. An example of what I am seeing would be the current extra warmth being experienced in a heat wave in the Southwest over the last week or two, and still ongoing. Although the current wind pattern is shifting slightly as compared to the last several weeks. Look at the surface wind patterns which are moving from warmer regions northward into the Southwest. Those surface winds are moist and warm, and a heat wave forms…,42.10,819/loc=-122.896,40.434

Comments to post

I write this here to see if Huff Po is going to censor my comment. 
This analogy of comparing diabetes and CO2 in the atmosphere has no meaning. CO2 is a life giving gas. Since CO2 has increased in the atmosphere it has aided in a greening of the planet as can be seen through the satellites which monitor our planet. Nor is there any danger or potential threat as of yet from the small continuous rise in sea levels around the globe. The current rate of SLR would have to triple before it would constitute a problem. If that happened, it would then take at least 50 more years before some spots around the globe would feel a first impact.
The warmer ice free Arctic back around 3+ million years ago was due to the gap where the Isthmus of Panama was still open to the Gulf Of Mexico and thus to the Atlantic Ocean. Warm Pacific waters would flow through that gap, and then make their way into the Arctic Ocean. That is why the Arctic had higher temps than today. The same event can not take place now.
We are all most likely going to feel the beginning of a cold trend starting by next winter. Although there is some indication that this is underway with this approaching winter. We shall see on that score.


I posted this at FB on my families page, but I am moving it to WordPress, as this is an important story which explains some of the unusual aspects of my life.


Part 1:

To help clarify why I posted my comment the other day, let me start at the beginning of the story. The blog site where I had posted the earlier comments never approved my comments. I knew that was a possibility.

Last week on WUWT, I wanted to respond to a comment that I thought was in error regarding the huge rain event of the 1996/97 winter as he was saying that the big rain occurred in the winter of 1997/98. I at first thought that perhaps my memory had failed me. After much searching around, including seeking answers from locals who were able to remember what happened almost 20 years ago, I finally realized that we were both correct in what we were stating. In fact the winter of 1997/98 was a big rain year for California, but most of that rain fell in the south as that was during the Grand El Nino of 1997/98 which led to a step change in global temps. The prior winter though, was the semi biblical rain event that we experienced here in Northern California and at points further north. This was the storm that I had prophetically called the year before. That came about when one morning in mid January of 1996, of the year prior to the storm, a message flowed into my thoughts from a particular region within me. Any message/understanding that has ever come from that region has turned out to be certain fact. That is why after receiving the message/understanding that I started telling everyone and anyone for months afterwards that the winter of 1996/97 was going to be a flood year for upper California. Of course, in the next winter the semi biblical storm event of 1996/97 came to pass. So in the course of looking up information on when that storm actually struck, the only solid clue that I had was the storm ended on the night that I walked out onto the back porch of the house I had rented in Novato to smoke a cigarette. That is when without thinking, I spread my arms wide and said a quiet prayer to God ” If the rain continues you will flood us all”. At that moment the rains stopped, the clouds to the north of me parted, and there was the comet Hale Bopp falling in the northwest evening sky. That is the key part of my story, the comet Hale Bopp. I knew that all I had to do was find out when it was in the sky to verify the year of the storm. So I googled comets of 1996/97, and out of the resulting page of links I selected 3 to open and read. This was actually the second time I went through this process. The first time was almost a month prior where I did the exact same steps, but then did not follow through and gave up. So here I was doing the same thing and opened the same 3 links to read, but this time around the link to “The Sign of the Crossed Comets…” caught my attention. I did not read the entire page at first, but came back to it several hours later as I was intrigued by what It had to say. It was when I read the full page that my eyes and mind opened wide as to the potential interpretation and link between my prophetic understanding in January 1996, the flood event itself, and what this man had written. Bells were going off inside of me, and I understood that I had something to add to the story. After further reading at his site, I would rate the man as a bit out there in many of his other thoughts. Yet there was enough facts and truth within his story for me to understand and see the grains of wisdom hidden within. And so I responded.


Part II:

Ok, here we go. This comment is in response to a post that I recently read which sparked my thoughts and my inner spirit. There are several portions that should precede this long comment, but I did not save them prior to posting them on another website. So unless the owner of that website approves my comments, then the beginning of my thoughts is lost and I would have to restate them as best as possible. In that light you may wonder about my words, but keep in mind that I am talking to someone else who has a website with a post that sparked my thoughts. Here is a link to his post which if you were to read it first, then you would gain further understanding of the comment I am about to share with you…

Years ending in the number 6 have mostly held significant meaning to my life. That begins with 1956 as a 6 year old where I first started to become aware of a presence that would occasionally come near to me. I was afraid of that presence for the first few years, and would hide under my covers if in bed. Gradually, I lost my fear as I became older. I also began to notice this presence not only at home in the evening, but elsewhere such as in the classroom or while walking down the street. Later on in my high school years, I began to wonder if this was my ancestor, St Theresa of Avila, watching over me. Many years later I came to firmly believe that it was indeed my ancestor.

Towards the end of 1966, God the Father sent the Holy Spirit to come and enlighten me. I was then 16 years old. All of my life up to that point when I said my prayers, the only request that I ever made for myself was to ask for wisdom and faith. On that night when the Holy Spirit entered into my room after I had finished my prayers, my prayers were then finally answered. I received that which I had requested. The funny part about that was it was only 4.5 years ago when I moved up to the mountains of Trinity County Ca that the awareness came to me that it wasn’t the gift of faith which was given to me that night. I had received the gift of no longer needing faith to know that God is real. I still retain faith in regards to the workings of God, as that is something that no man can fully encompass in their thoughts. As you might imagine, I could write a short story on the full experience of what happened that night.

From there I now take you to 1976. The year where I faced death 3 times where I could not see how I was going to survive the moment. Further at the end of that year I was separated from my wife and two children. That was begot of my foolishness, ego, and youth. I paid dearly for that as it led to divorce. The first should-have-died-moment was around June 6th of that year. I could research that as an accident report was made at the time as well as an insurance claim. Thereafter, the next close call was 2 months later in early August, and the 3rd close call was 2 months later in early October. The totality of this now reminds me of your summation of 3 events followed by a 4th event.

The year 1986 saw me recovering from getting struck by a vehicle in SF while crossing the street. In September of 1986 my family opened a new restaurant in a great location close to the theater district of downtown SF. It looked like good times were finally here, and a renaissance for me. At the very end of the year, a beautiful woman who I had seen in my dreams many times as we stood on a hillside in an unknown land came in to look for work as a waitress. I was completely taken by her beauty, although I did not immediately make the connection between her and the dream which I had first had at the end of 1976. Then it finally dawned on me what I was looking at. She was from Ireland. That made complete sense as in the dream which I used to have I knew that I was standing on foreign soil on that hillside. I could tell as the vegetation surrounding me was unfamiliar, and the scent of the air was very different. I knew that it was not in America. Unfortunately, mistakes in my past led to our not connecting although both of us felt a bonding connection. Yet to behold a dream walking into my life was quite a gift on it’s own merit. {After thinking about this timeline, I have realized that I stated events improperly. The opening on Geary St happened in the beginning of the year, 1986. Helen Ferguson first came into Mama’s around March of that year. I remember now as I first saw her one night at our bar as I came up for a beer after another long day of working the kitchen. That was during the period of when I worked 15 hours a day for 100 days in a row after the opening of Geary St Mama’s.}

Next up is 1996. As I mentioned in my earlier comment, this year starts out with two events in the first month. The first I have already fleshed out as a prophetic understanding. Here is the 2nd. Towards the end of the month of January I awoke from a pleasurable dream. When I say awoke, I mean that “I” awoke while my body remained in sleep. I knew that I was laying in my bed, but what I was looking at was as if I was looking from the back of the inside of my brain forward. I could see all the pathways of my neural network. It was like looking at a very complex road map with highways and ancillary roads leading to the different regions within the mind. There were specks of lights, as if headlights on a road, traveling the multiple pathways. It was rather quiet overall, but that makes sense as my body was still asleep. After viewing this wondrous vision for a bit, my attention was then drawn to a pear shaped object lower down in my field of vision. This pear shaped object was glowing white hot with energy, and with that the understanding began to flow. I will only describe one of the primary understandings. That is that this was all being triggered by the current position of the Moon. Then all of the pieces came together that after 6 full years of celibacy on the 6th day before the Full Moon in the year 1996, I had finally gained understanding of a mystery that I had read hints about through several sources over the years. Once again I was experiencing an incredible enlightenment. In the years following this I always knew when the 6th day of the moon was. In recent years this has shifted though, and so far I have no understanding of why this would be so. Perhaps now that your thoughts have so stirred me to awaken to higher thoughts, I may come to an understanding of the change. Now for the final thoughts.

At the end of 1996 my family lost the lease on our downtown restaurant which by then was close to a 4 million dollar a year business. We were much liked by many. A crooked lawyer had stabbed my father in the back to get the lease from us. My father then talked me into leaving San Francisco to move to Marin County where he had gained a great prospect for our next establishment. I moved to Novato around November of that year, where in early 1997 I walked out onto the back porch to smoke a cigarette in the midst of the great storm which I had predicted in January of 1996, only to end up speaking a quiet prayer and bearing witness to the end of that storm and comet Hale Bopp falling through the northwest sky. I will leave it there for now. Although that is not all as this journey is still ongoing. Except that I now firmly believe that I am part of the story of which you write about.

The paths traced in the sky in 1996 and 1997 by the “naked eye” comets Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp intersect. My friend Bob Wadsworth (the Biblical Astronomy guy) made an important observation in 1997, that the two comets reached the point of intersection exactly one solar year apart. That’s no mere coi…

My analysis of the Sun/Ocean/ENSO connection

Postscript to my comment…I need to put up two charts for viewers or it will be very hard to ascertain what I am getting at. The first graph was posted by David Archibald at WUWT under the link further down the page, which is showing sun spot numbers in the North and South Hemispheres of the Sun. The second chart is NOAA’s monthly MEI chart depicting warm/cool trends in the ENSO regions of the Pacific Ocean…Cycle 22 23 24 N-Sts 10 3 15

This was posted at WUWT…

Thanks for your post today. You have laid out the right ingredients to fire my thoughts and form a clearer picture within. Vukcevic’s post above yours also added to what I am about to point out. I have always felt that there must be a firm connection between solar and ocean interactions. Several years ago I noticed a potential correlation between ssn dominance in the N/S hemispheres of the Sun and changes in the MEI from warm to cool. The Silso page is where I first noted this, but their chart of the hemispheric changes is low resolution as compared to what you just posted with your 30 year chart of N/S ssn shifts. Because of some ambiguity in the connection using the low resolution Silso chart, I have kept the thought to myself for the last several years. Now I can flesh out the connection using your high res 30 year chart. Although, now I can more clearly see that there is most likely some 3rd component to what i am about to outline as there are still some sections that do not mesh, likely a lunar connection. Here we go.

Starting prior to 1985, which is close to the solar minimum, the MEI enters into a weak cool phase. This changes in early 1986 to a warm phase, and by the end of 1986 both solar hemispheres rise swiftly with the South ssn leading the North ssn. This leads to a peak El Nino around June of1987. By May of 1988 the North ssn rides above the South ssn, and the MEI has dropped into a cool trend which lasts until 1990. The North ssn peaks in early 1989 and swiftly drops, and the La Nina peaks around the beginning of 1989 and fades away through 1989. At the very end of 1989 the South ssn rises above the North ssn and the MEI starts to warm. The South ssn stays above the North ssn all the way to 1993. There is a long warm phase/El Nino from 1990 to 1993, when the warm phase dips low as the North ssn moves above the South ssn in the beginning of 1993/ Both hemispheres are dropping towards the minimum. At the end of 1993 the South ssn moves above the North ssn, and the MEI warm phase grows back to an El Nino which ends in early 1995 as the Sun is once again close to it’s minimum. There is now a 16 month cool phase/La Nina. Around Oct of 1996. both hemispheres start to rise with the South ssn slightly leading the North ssn. The MEI enters a rapid warm phase/El Nino, the 1997/98 Big One. In early 1998 The South ssn drops for a few months while the North ssn continues to rise. Around April of 1998 the MEI crosses back into cool phase/La Nina.Then the North ssn dominates until early 2000, note the little warm spike on the MEI in early 2000 as the hemisphere ssn are equal. The North ssn once again rises above the South ssn until early 2001, and the MEI is mostly cool phase/La Nina with a brief warm phase in early 2001 then a brief cool phase. In mid 2001 the North ssn is now dropping while the South ssn soars. The MEI takes off into a warm phase/El Nino until mid 2005, then a brief cool phase and back to warm phase/El Nino until very early 2007. The South ssn prevails over the North ssn the entire time from mid 2001 to early 2007, except for a brief moment in early 2004 when the North ssn rises briefly while the South ssn is descending, note the little cool phase spike on the MEI in early 2004. This reads like a book. Now we come to the solar minimum and the MEI runs cool phase/La Nina up to very early 2009. From early 2009 to early 2010 there is an El Nino that I can not explain. In early 2010 to early 2012 the MEI rapidly enters La Nina. The North ssn has risen rapidly above a weak rising South ssn from 2010 to 2012. The North ssn drops just before 2012 to meet the lower positioned South ssn around April/May of 2012. There is a rapid but short El Nino spike, followed by a quick back and forth North ssn over South ssn several times. Note the MEI quickly cools warms cools warms cools. We are close to the end of this now. Lastly, around March of 2013 the North ssn flatlines while the South ssn soars high. The MEI has been in warm phase/El Nino ever since. The Earth has had well above average temps ever since 2013. And that is how you correlate the interaction between the Sun, the oceans, and global temperature on this planet.

I would bet that by looking at the past history of the MEI, I would be able to outline which hemisphere of the Sun was ssn dominant over the entire record of the MEI. One last remark, note that the North ssn continues to track sideways while the South ssn is plunging. Thus the North ssn is now just peeking above the South ssn. If this continues, then the MEI should head towards a cool phase/La Nina in the very near future. It will be of interest to see how long this takes. The plunging South ssn is certainly headed towards it’s minimum as can be seen by looking at the path shown in the previous two solar cycles. The North ssn should follow around 2 years from now, although I would have to call the current behavior of the North ssn unusual. What might that portend?

Thank you David Archibald and Vukcevic for sharing your thoughts. These are my thoughts in return. There is more that I could add later after further contemplation.