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Prelude to Waiting for the Sun

August 9, 2020

From comments just made on WUWT after questions were posed to me about a claim of mine.


There was a change in surface wind patterns to the west of the tip of South America back around mid 2016. I made note of that at the time in a comment at that time. I stated that if this pattern holds then it would gradually lead to a cooling which would travel north up the coast of South America. That is exactly what has happened. It was at that point when I started saving daily screenshots from earthnull of that spot. I have a daily record of that area ever since then which tells the story in screenshots.

Martin Cropp

What was the change in the wind pattern you observed, and any idea of the reason.Reply

  • goldminor The change was that prior to mid 2016 the typical surface wind pattern down there would push warm air southeasterly through Drakes Passage from a northerly point as high as 20 degrees south latitude. At least just about every time where I would look at that region that is what I would see. Those winds mainly went directly through Drakes Passage. Then I noticed a shift where the surface winds in this region started moving due east directly into South America. A portion of those winds then started moving north up the west coast of SA just above the tip of SA. After observing this for several weeks it dawned on me that I was witnessing a real change that might well continue on for some time, and that is exactly what has happened to this day. This is the spot which I have been observing ever since then …,-39.22,672/loc=-85.480,-40.647
  • The consequences of the change was that the surface winds were pushing cold air from the south off of Antarctica which would then move up the west side of SA. It also meant that the warm air flow moving to the southeast was ended. I reasoned that this would also gradually mean a change in colder surface waters also moving north up the coast due to the change in the surface winds. As to the reason why, I would hazard a guess that it has to do with my concept of excess sunspots in a given hemisphere of the sun driving temp changes in the ENSO region with the mechanism or part of the mechanism being that this leads to a change in wind patterns, and maybe overall pressure changes in the atmosphere which could cause surface winds to be redirected. That is as good as a guess as I can muster.

Joel O’Bryan

???? What kind of voodoo science is that????
So the equatorial Pacific count sunspots to arc minute accuracy?Reply

  • goldminor This is my voodoo science. My base concept is that the excess sunspots in a given hemisphere lead to temp changes in the ENSO region. I came across this by melding the chart of the MEI with the Silso excess sunspot on my inner blackboard. It took quite awhile to grasp how this fit together, but I finally developed a reasonably good picture of it over the years. The beginning of this was that it appeared obvious to me as well as to others around here that there was some connection between sunspots and temp changes on our planet. But it was a very elusive connection to make. It would look good for a bit, and then the correlation would break off. I gave up several times over the years thinking that I was fooling myself. Then on a 3rd try at cracking this I finally realized that the correlation had to do with what hemisphere of the sun had the greater amount of sunspots.
  • The question is am I seeing this correctly. So here is some interesting recent observations which I have been meaning to detail lately. Right at the end of April and into early May A sunspot group appeared in the northern hemisphere. Look at what happend in the 3.4 region in the beginning of May. Temps started dropping in the 3.4 region, …
  • Now follow the 3.4 graph down to the end of May where there is an uptick in temps in the 3.4 region. On the 4th of June a sunspot came into view in the south, and spent 12 days crossing in the souhern hemisphere. Note how temps in the 3.4 region once again rise into positive numbers. Then on the 5th of June a northern sunspot appears, and by the 11th of June the 3.4 region starts cooling. That sunspot only lasts for 3 days before fading away, temps stop dropping in the 3.4 region and move sideways for a week+ before spiking back up around the 22nd of June as another southern sunspot appears.
  • On the 29th a fairly large sunspot group appears back in the north, then a second group appears in the north, and as you can see from the 3.4 graph temps have steadily dropped once again. I had never realized that I could use daily sunspot info to assess these changes. The Silso excess chart is a 13 month smoothed chart. Silso’s excess ssn chart is only showing up to December 2019 at the moment. That means that I was not able to assess where things stood in the present until someone over at Spaceweathe Live pointed out to me that I can view the daily changes here., …
  • And much to my surprise I think that this shows that there is a fairly quick response to changes in sunspot positions and temp changes in the 3.4 region. This is pretty exciting as it brings my concept up to the point where temp changes in the the 3.4 region can be readily assessed according to this method. How is that for voodoo science? I have been thinking of writing a WP post which I will name “Waiting for the Sun”. Fortunately for me I inherited my mother’s patience.

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