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Sun/ENSO/Atmospheric Temps Correlation

January 17, 2020

Now that I have stirred the pot it is time that I redo the original 2015 Sun/Ocean/ENSO in order to have a more coherent and readable story. This will be short for now as I just want to get a page out that makes it easier to grasp what I am seeing. Here are the two graphs which tell the story. The first is Silso’s hemispheric excess ssn graph, and the other is the current MEI v2. … https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

and Silso … here is the easy part. Silso shows that the south solar hemisphere sunspots become dominant in early 2013 (the last big red spike on the graph), and stays dominant into early 2015. The peak is around June 2014. Now look at the MEI above. It turns positive in early 2014 then the MEI finally reaches its peak around the middle of 2015. Global temps then peak in Feb 2016.MEI ...12 1 18 last one before change

MEI ...1 1 20 Let’s take a look back at the positive MEI which ends sharply towards the end of 2016. That happens because Silso goes ‘green’ around March of 2015. It then takes approximately 8 months for the MEI to move into negative temps at the end of 2015. Global temps plunge swiftly at this point, but part of that would be due to the natural rebound of surface waters in the ENSO regions after a strong El Nino peak. Global temps continue to steadily decline until the ‘green’ necks down in 2017, almost fading away. That is what leads to the slight warm rebound in global temps., imo.

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One Comment
  1. I just finished a closer look at the tail end of the graphs as 2019 comes to an end. Around June of 2017 the sunspot count in the north starts to fade away. With that the MEI which had just reached its lowest position of -1.2 C moves back to 0.0 C in just 3 months. That brings to an end the burgeoning La Nina. The MEI then steps up to 0.8 C because of the ‘green north” fade at 6/2017. The green flares up again enough to move the MEI back to 0.0 C, and lastly warms up a bit for the last 8 months of 2019.

    I think the full onset of the solar spotless days slowed down the monthly changes in the MEI trend, and the proof for that can be seen when looking at Dr Spencer’s monthly UAH temp graph. Note that the last 13 months shown on UAH correspond exactly to my claim of the MEI remaining in a sideways trend over the last 13 months.

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