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A successful ENSO forecast

May 9, 2020

On Feb 1st I made a simple forecast in a comment on WUWT in order to mark the start of my year for show and tell. Here was the comment, “@ Javier …forecast for a negative ENSO starting around April/May of this year.”. This forecast was just proven true today as Tropical Tidbits shows the 3.4 region on the zero trend line. … https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png undefined

Here is my basic forecast for the rest of this year in a comment made earlier today. This forecast covers sunspot progression as the minimum ends, expected value of UAH satellite temp data by end of August, and the value for the 3.4 ENSO region.

I was asked this question by Allan MACrae, “… ALLAN MACRAE Goldminor wrote 1Feb2020:
“@ Javier …forecast for a negative ENSO starting around April/May of this year.” Good call. Was this your forecast or someone else’s? What was your methodology or source for this prediction? …”.

Here was my answer.

“This is my prediction from 2015, and my more current updated forecast on Feb 1st. My method for analyzing when temp shifts will take place, and the sign of the change is based on which hemisphere of the sun is the more active with sunspots. I expect groups of sunspots to begin appearing around July. That from July to September sunspots will still be intermittent, and then become more regular in the last 1/4 of the year. That is a forecast which I made over at Spaceweather in December.

The discussion was about what month should be considered as the minimum, and how abruptly would the minimum end. I was of the opinion that there would be a minimum of 150 spotless days for 2020 which was contrary to what the author of the post thought. My reasoning for that number stemmed from noting the 800+ spotless days from the previous minimum. Current number for spotless days at the end of 2019 were only 636. That said to me that the final numbers should be much closer to 800 at a minimum, especially given what the trend of the Oulo daily graph shows. I read the Oulo graph as suggesting another longish minimum similar to the length of the 2008/09 minimum.

I also stated that the first half of 2020 would have the most spotless days with the second half being the restart towards the max, and the gradual end of spotless days. So far most of the few sunspots this year have been in the northern hemisphere with occasional southern sunspots of late. If the northern hemisphere of the sun remains dominant in sunspot count, then the ENSO regions will swiftly respond by moving towards a la Nina state. I expect the northern hemisphere of the sun to be mostly dominant for sunspot count for the next 16 years. As a result I would expect to see the ENSO regions strongly favor negative temps. In the near term I think that we will see Dr Spencer’s UAH graph drop to the zero trend line by August, and then drop into negative numbers through the end of the year. The ENSO 3.4 should read around -1 C at the end of the year. That is how I read the tea leaves from my solar/ocean theory.

This year is show and tell time for my theory. Now I will find out what nature thinks about my thoughts.”

Note that sea surface temps at the equator are cooling. Thirteen days ago that green stripe was a tiny dot of cooling. Interesting times lay ahead as the globe prepares to cool.

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