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Prediction for CoolWet conditions in Oregon/California 3/2014

I would forecast California and Oregon weather to be towards the cool side this summer. The cooler sst flows in the western North Pacific are going to push towards Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. AMJ prediction season_drought1.png


Hurricanes Global Feb 2015

Comment on Tisdale post Hawaii Ssta

I see something interesting in your 1880 to present ssta chart. You know how I have always seen the cyclic pattern in looking at charts. Well, start with a line from 1884/85 to 1914/15. Follow that with a line from 1914/15 to 1946/47, and then draw a line from 1946/47 to 1976/77. It can then be noted that those lines follow the cooling in the late 1800s into the mid 1910s, which is then followed by the warming which ends in the late 1940s. Then that is followed by the cooling period up till the mid 1970s. After which the grand global warming occurs from 1976/77 to it,s peak in 2006/07. All the years are approximations from the way that I look at the data.

The ocean pattern in the zone that chart encompasses fits that pattern of warming/cooling to a ‘T’. Also noteworthy, is the period of years from 1978 till 1998. Note that this is the longest sequence of years with so little variation between the highs and lows. That correlates with the grand warming. Is this particular spot in the ocean a ‘key’ spot for some reason? Lastly note that since 2006/07 the following years revert back to a higher variation between highs and lows as is seen prior to 1976 and back to the beginning years of the chart. One last note, look at the years between 1919 till 1930, where it can be seen that this warming period also shows a similar streak of less variation in high to low, although it does not extend for as many years as the recent warming period. This particular zone could well be a keystone to global warming/cooling. Tisdale ...corrected-long-term-monthly-hawaii-storm-track-ssta 1880 to 2014

CO2 fertililzation study 041918_EE_CO2_inline_370

In the Grand Scheme of Things

ts MEI 5 8 18 versus C4 grasses study



Here we go, correlation of the C4 grasses over the last 17 years. The graph starts in 1999. I will use the ambient air trend for this purpose in correlation with the MEI for the ENSO conditions plus sunspot changes. The graph starts at a low point in 2009. The beginning correlation is with a moderate La Nina of slightly over -1C in the ENSO regions, and at the same time sunspots in SC 23 have risen off of the minimum, but are still moderately low, no first peak. Then in 2000 the C4 graph steps up a notch while the ENSO moves back to neutral, then slightly positive, then falls – 0.5C.. Sunspots at the same time have reached a first peak, but fall back fairly low in the second half of the growing season. Result C4 growth rate increases a bit.

In 2001 C4 then shows another step up slightly greater than 2000, as ENSO regions reach a +0.25C through mid 2001, then drop slightly negative at end of year. Sunspots reach a new peak, then fall back sharply. The 2002 grow season drops slightly as ENSO is slightly negative first half, then ascends +1.0C later on. Sunspots peak for SC23 through first half of year, then fall sharply.

In 2003 C4 drops again. The ENSO is at a 1.2C peak early 2003, then falls rapidly for rest of year down to 0.2C. Sunspots start 2003 at high peak, then fall rapidly till Sept/Oct 2003. In 2004 C4 rises. The ENSO steadily rises from 0.0C to 0.8C by end of year. Sunspots start 2004 low, move up through mid year, then drop low again.

In 2005 C4 rises slightly higher. The ENSO starts at 1.0C, but then moves steadily down ending a bit negative at end of year. Sunspots at mid levels for most of 2005, then fall at end of year way very low. Note how the ENSO and sunspots are moving together through all of this in every year.

In 2006 C4 drops. The ENSO starts around 0.0C, drops through grow season to -0.5C, rising towards end of year. Sunspots start around zero, rise but stay low, end year above the bottom, but stay low.

Now we get to a key clue as to how all of this syncs. C4 drops severely in 2007, slightly more in 2008. Why??? The solar minimum is at hand. The ENSO starts 2007 about 0.3C, then plunges to -1.2C through the course of the year. C4 plants shiver in the soil, but there is no warmth to aid them. They cry out for help “Help Mr Wizard”, but the wizard can not help them at this time. C4 continues to struggle through 2008. The ENSO rises slightly positive early before falling back to -0.75C for most of 2008.

Finally in 2009, C4 rises slightly again. The ENSO moves from -0.75C up to 1.0C through the course of the year. Sunspots still at minimum rise slightly by the end of 2009. SC 24 has started. In 2010 C4 rises slightly again. The ENSO starts at 1.3C, then drops sharply to -1.9C by end of 2010. Sunspots rise off of the minimum, but are still somewhat low, somewhat anomalous. I see a probable cause, but will not delve into that at this time.

In 2011 C4 drops slightly. The ENSO rises from -1.6C to neutral around May/June. Then drops back to -1.0C by end of year. Sunspots rise from a low point to a moderate peak, then fall back low by end of year. Rising to the first peak of SC24 only at the very end of 2011. C4 rises in 2012. The ENSO starts around -0.5C, then rises to 1.0C mid 2012, after which ENSO drops to 0.0C by end of 2012. Sunspots start 2012 low, then rise to a peak by mid 2012, before falling to a somewhat low point by the end of 2012.

C4 rises in 2013. The ENSO hangs on either side of neutral through the course of the year, ending slightly negative at years end. Sunspots start 2013 to the low side reach a second peak around May 2013, then maintain a moderate posture for the rest of 2013 as they bounce up and down from a moderately high level.

Now for the conclusion of this gripping tale. C4 rises in 2014, and then jumps high in 2015. C4 plants celebrate, and sing for joy to the heavens above. The ENSO starts 2014 at neutral, then rises to a high of 1.0C by mid year, then falls back 0.5C by years end, but remains positive. Sunspots reach peak of SC24 around March 2014, and then maintain high levels through 2014, while slightly dropping along the way.

C4 makes the biggest jump on the graph in 2015. The ENSO starts at 0.5C, then rapidly shoots up to 2.4C by around July/August of 2015. The ENSO remains at a high point through the end of the year. Note that global temps peak in Feb 2016. Take note of the lag indicated by this as this will be part of the test later on. Who shall pass the test? In the meantime, now that I have slightly distracted you, sunspots drop a bit early in 2015, then maintain a steady moderate level with several peaks interspersed over 2015. C4 plants sing praise to the heavens for being blessed with such bounty for an entire year.

Now the final chapter as a slight change, the beginning of a shadow to come enters on the scene. In 2016 C4 growth, while still high as compared to the entirety of the graph displayed, drops for the first time since the last solar minimum with exception of the slight drop in 2011. The ENSO regions have fallen from the mighty high in 2015/early 2016, and plunge to -0.3C around June 2016. The sunspot count has fallen from a moderate level down to minimum by May 2016 just as the ENSO regions have done. Something has changed. What has changed? Any thoughts from any of you?

Postscript …lastly ENSO spikes back to 1.3C in mid 2017. Sunspots have a moderate spike around March of 2017 then fall afterwards, mainly. I would assume that if the C4 graph continued through 2017 it would show a further decline below the 2016 level on the above graph. I am going to share this comment with the author of the C3/C4 study to see if that is so.

pps …in the winter of 2016/17 my prediction made in February 2014 comes true as sunspots drop to minimum levels at the 2016/17 boundary, the ENSO regions plunge to negative from +2.1C to -0.3C, and continuous rain storms pour in off of the Pacific Ocean to inundate much of the West Coast. The dreaded drought in California is broken. The Feather River system bears the brunt of the West Coast rains. Oroville dam comes under threat of imminent failure. Several hundred thousand panicked peasants, God fearing and otherwise, flee in panic for their lives as imminent DOOM threatens their very existence, but in the end the dam at Oroville holds, the rain and the panic subsides, but the grim cleanup in the aftermath now lays ahead. ( thought that I should fluff that up a bit at the end, literary license and whatnot)

CO2 fertilization of C3 vs C4 over time

Here is the graph from a study on C4 plants growth rate as compared to C3 plants which have CO2 pumped in to increase the growth rate. From this study, … fertililzation study  041918_EE_CO2_inline_370.png

3 15 18

Comment made 3 15 18 …

I see that you are from Australia. What do you think of this analysis of the Onlsow Tropical Cyclone record? …

Several of the regulars at WUWT plainly stated that my thoughts are nothing but wishful thinking, including Dr Svalgaard whose solar cycle chart I used in making my analysis. The reason for their severe doubt is that I am an amateur with no maths skill. My ability is that my reading comprehension is still very good, and I have a superior ability to interpret graphic representations derived from science studies. I stand by that claim as I have been able to correctly forecast/predict future pieces of the weather/climate puzzle. That makes me an advanced wiggle matcher, imo.

Believe it ir not all of the above is a consequence of my having grown up in California to a father who encouraged me to learn how to fish. That led me to leave San Francisco, and move north into the mountains where the steelhead and salmon were. That led me to learn in the early 1970s that there was a suspected cyclical flood pattern on the West Coast of the US. Being a Californian who had lived through two of those massive rain winters, 1955/56 and 1964/65, that idea intrigued me.

That sole bit of possible knowledge became my foothold into the climate debate story, when I started reading about AGW in mid 2008. That bit of knowledge became a spark when in my first year of reading I came across my first look at a solar cycle graph. Within seconds my inner thoughts said “Look at how the flood history of the West Coast matches up with solar minimums”, and just like that I was hooked. That is how I work. My mind immediately saw the correlation even though my only science experience was 1 year at university in 1969 for chem/physics of which I never completed and then d ropped out. Now I fully realiize that I always belonged in the fields of science. I will spend the remainder of my years thinking science.

Lastly, after all of that my greatest prediction was in early 2014 and naturally had to do with the West Coast hypothetical flood pattern. I had a period of great clarity. That moment crystallized the knowledge from studying AGW over the years, and I gained a level of understanding of what I had been looking at for the prior 6 years. I made comments shortly after that the winter of 2016/17 was the most probable year for a flood level winter on the Pacific Northwest, and I nailed it, 3 years before it happened. Around the same time, I also stated that the winter of 2017/18 would be the downturn into the next cool trend, the point where the trend on a graph moves to the shoulder of a downward step at which time it becomes readily apparent. That means that I also had the ENSO region conditions, and the solar cycle position correct in order to correctly make the flood prediction. And that is why I think that I am on the right track despite what some professionals may say.