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My analysis of the Sun/Ocean/ENSO connection

Postscript to my comment…I need to put up two charts for viewers or it will be very hard to ascertain what I am getting at. The first graph was posted by David Archibald at WUWT under the link further down the page, which is showing sun spot numbers in the North and South Hemispheres of the Sun. The second chart is NOAA’s monthly MEI chart depicting warm/cool trends in the ENSO regions of the Pacific Ocean…Cycle 22 23 24 N-Sts 10 3 15

This was posted at WUWT…

Thanks for your post today. You have laid out the right ingredients to fire my thoughts and form a clearer picture within. Vukcevic’s post above yours also added to what I am about to point out. I have always felt that there must be a firm connection between solar and ocean interactions. Several years ago I noticed a potential correlation between ssn dominance in the N/S hemispheres of the Sun and changes in the MEI from warm to cool. The Silso page is where I first noted this, but their chart of the hemispheric changes is low resolution as compared to what you just posted with your 30 year chart of N/S ssn shifts. Because of some ambiguity in the connection using the low resolution Silso chart, I have kept the thought to myself for the last several years. Now I can flesh out the connection using your high res 30 year chart. Although, now I can more clearly see that there is most likely some 3rd component to what i am about to outline as there are still some sections that do not mesh, likely a lunar connection. Here we go.

Starting prior to 1985, which is close to the solar minimum, the MEI enters into a weak cool phase. This changes in early 1986 to a warm phase, and by the end of 1986 both solar hemispheres rise swiftly with the South ssn leading the North ssn. This leads to a peak El Nino around June of1987. By May of 1988 the North ssn rides above the South ssn, and the MEI has dropped into a cool trend which lasts until 1990. The North ssn peaks in early 1989 and swiftly drops, and the La Nina peaks around the beginning of 1989 and fades away through 1989. At the very end of 1989 the South ssn rises above the North ssn and the MEI starts to warm. The South ssn stays above the North ssn all the way to 1993. There is a long warm phase/El Nino from 1990 to 1993, when the warm phase dips low as the North ssn moves above the South ssn in the beginning of 1993/ Both hemispheres are dropping towards the minimum. At the end of 1993 the South ssn moves above the North ssn, and the MEI warm phase grows back to an El Nino which ends in early 1995 as the Sun is once again close to it’s minimum. There is now a 16 month cool phase/La Nina. Around Oct of 1996. both hemispheres start to rise with the South ssn slightly leading the North ssn. The MEI enters a rapid warm phase/El Nino, the 1997/98 Big One. In early 1998 The South ssn drops for a few months while the North ssn continues to rise. Around April of 1998 the MEI crosses back into cool phase/La Nina.Then the North ssn dominates until early 2000, note the little warm spike on the MEI in early 2000 as the hemisphere ssn are equal. The North ssn once again rises above the South ssn until early 2001, and the MEI is mostly cool phase/La Nina with a brief warm phase in early 2001 then a brief cool phase. In mid 2001 the North ssn is now dropping while the South ssn soars. The MEI takes off into a warm phase/El Nino until mid 2005, then a brief cool phase and back to warm phase/El Nino until very early 2007. The South ssn prevails over the North ssn the entire time from mid 2001 to early 2007, except for a brief moment in early 2004 when the North ssn rises briefly while the South ssn is descending, note the little cool phase spike on the MEI in early 2004. This reads like a book. Now we come to the solar minimum and the MEI runs cool phase/La Nina up to very early 2009. From early 2009 to early 2010 there is an El Nino that I can not explain. In early 2010 to early 2012 the MEI rapidly enters La Nina. The North ssn has risen rapidly above a weak rising South ssn from 2010 to 2012. The North ssn drops just before 2012 to meet the lower positioned South ssn around April/May of 2012. There is a rapid but short El Nino spike, followed by a quick back and forth North ssn over South ssn several times. Note the MEI quickly cools warms cools warms cools. We are close to the end of this now. Lastly, around March of 2013 the North ssn flatlines while the South ssn soars high. The MEI has been in warm phase/El Nino ever since. The Earth has had well above average temps ever since 2013. And that is how you correlate the interaction between the Sun, the oceans, and global temperature on this planet.

I would bet that by looking at the past history of the MEI, I would be able to outline which hemisphere of the Sun was ssn dominant over the entire record of the MEI. One last remark, note that the North ssn continues to track sideways while the South ssn is plunging. Thus the North ssn is now just peeking above the South ssn. If this continues, then the MEI should head towards a cool phase/La Nina in the very near future. It will be of interest to see how long this takes. The plunging South ssn is certainly headed towards it’s minimum as can be seen by looking at the path shown in the previous two solar cycles. The North ssn should follow around 2 years from now, although I would have to call the current behavior of the North ssn unusual. What might that portend?

Thank you David Archibald and Vukcevic for sharing your thoughts. These are my thoughts in return. There is more that I could add later after further contemplation.


ongoing story

Years ending in the number 6 have mostly held significant meaning to my life. That begins with 1956 as a 6 year old where I first started to become aware of a presence that would occasionally come near to me. I was afraid of that presence for the first few years, and would hide under my covers if in bed. Gradually, I lost my fear as I became older. I also began to notice this presence not only at home in the evening, but elsewhere such as in the classroom or while walking down the street. Later on in my high school years, I began to wonder if this was my ancestor, St Theresa of Avila, watching over me. Many years later I came to firmly believe that it was indeed my ancestor.

Towards the end of 1966, God the Father sent the Holy Spirit to come and enlighten me. I was then 16 years old. All of my life up to that point when I said my prayers, the only request that I ever made for myself was to ask for wisdom and faith. On that night when the Holy Spirit entered into my room after I had finished my prayers, my prayers were then finally answered. I received that which I had requested. The funny part about that was it was only 4.5 years ago when I moved up to the mountains of Trinity County Ca that the awareness came to me that it wasn’t the gift of faith which was given to me that night. I had received the gift of no longer needing faith to know that God is real. I still retain faith in regards to the workings of God, as that is something that no man can fully encompass in their thoughts. As you might imagine, I could write a short story on the full experience of what happened that night.

From there I now take you to 1976. The year where I faced death 3 times where I could not see how I was going to survive the moment. Further at the end of that year I was separated from my wife and two children. That was begot of my foolishness, ego, and youth. I paid dearly for that as it led to divorce. The first should-have-died-moment was around June 6th of that year. I could research that as an accident report was made at the time as well as an insurance claim. Thereafter, the next close call was 2 months later in early August, and the 3rd close call was 2 months later in early October. The totality of this now reminds me of your summation of 3 events followed by a 4th event.

The year 1986 saw me recovering from getting struck by a vehicle in SF while crossing the street. In September of 1986 my family opened a new restaurant in a great location close to the theater district of downtown SF. It looked like good times were finally here, and a renaissance for me. At the very end of the year, a beautiful woman who I had seen in my dreams many times as we stood on a hillside in an unknown land came in to look for work as a waitress. I was completely taken by her beauty, although I did not immediately make the connection between her and the dream which I had first had at the end of 1976. Then it finally dawned on me what I was looking at. She was from Ireland. That made complete sense as in the dream which I used to have I knew that I was standing on foreign soil on that hillside. I could tell as the vegetation surrounding me was unfamiliar, and the scent of the air was very different. I knew that it was not in America. Unfortunately, mistakes in my past led to our not connecting although both of us felt a bonding connection. Yet to behold a dream walking into my life was quite a gift on it’s own merit.

Next up is 1996. As I mentioned in my earlier comment, this year starts out with two events in the first month. The first I have already fleshed out as a prophetic understanding. Here is the 2nd. Towards the end of the month of January I awoke from a pleasurable dream. When I say awoke, I mean that “I” awoke while my body remained in sleep. I knew that I was laying in my bed, but what I was looking at was as if I was looking from the back of the inside of my brain forward. I could see all the pathways of my neural network. It was like looking at a very complex road map with highways and ancillary roads leading to the different regions within the mind. There were specks of lights, as if headlights on a road, traveling the multiple pathways. It was rather quiet overall, but that makes sense as my body was still asleep. After viewing this wondrous vision for a bit, my attention was then drawn to a pear shaped object lower down in my field of vision. This pear shaped object was glowing white hot with energy, and with that the understanding began to flow. I will only describe one of the primary understandings. That is that this was all being triggered by the current position of the Moon. Then all of the pieces came together that after 6 full years of celibacy on the 6th day before the Full Moon in the year 1996, I had finally gained understanding of a mystery that I had read hints about through several sources over the years. Once again I was experiencing an incredible enlightenment. In the years following this I always knew when the 6th day of the moon was. In recent years this has shifted though, and so far I have no understanding of why this would be so. Perhaps now that your thoughts have so stirred me to awaken to higher thoughts, I may come to an understanding of the change. Now for the final thoughts.

At the end of 1996 my family lost the lease on our downtown restaurant which by then was close to a 4 million dollar a year business. We were much liked by many. A crooked lawyer had stabbed my father in the back to get the lease from us. My father then talked me into leaving San Francisco to move to Marin County where he had gained a great prospect for our next establishment. I moved to Novato around November of that year, where in early 1997 I walked out onto the back porch to smoke a cigarette in the midst of the great storm which I had predicted in January of 1996, only to end up speaking a quiet prayer and bearing witness to the end of that storm and comet Hale Bopp falling through the northwest sky. I will leave it there for now. Although that is not all as this journey is still ongoing. Except that I now firmly believe that I am part of the story of which you write about.

ssn chart


@ lsvalgaard….i downloaded this on May 30 of last year. You had posted it during comments. It is the highest resolution sunspot chart that I have ever seen anywhere. Although it would be nice to see it with a little extra spacing on the time axis. It is hard to judge specific months, especially during the minimum where they sit close together.

The Spirit of the Atlantic surveys his realm.

wv-l water spiritwv-l huricanewv-l intense water cell

I saw the outline of a face in the upper picture and named it the Water Spirit. The picture shown is from 36 hours prior to everyone seeing hurricane Sandy. If you look close you can see Sandy in its infancy. Note how it appears that the Water Spirit has its left arm outstretched and pointing right at where Sandy is being born. The other two pictures show the further development of Sandy.

comments to keep how this is only the 4th wettest winter that the UK has experienced, it seems disingenuous to think that statistics and or models will lead to a better understanding of the future vs combining modern maths with historical records and data. In this article the assumption is automatically made that this current wet cycle is induced by human aided changes to long term weather patterns. Yet looking at the long term data sets where it can readily be seen that heavier rainfalls have occurred in the past, how would this article then justify its position of human influenced changes in rainfall patterns? I agree that man has changed the landscape around the world, and I would also agree that those land use changes lead to regional changes in the water cycle and local temperature changes. Some of that will have some level of impact on the overall system. In the US, the Dust Bowl was a prime example of how man caused changes can combine with natural weather patterns to induce a much more severe event. There are also examples from thousands of years ago where nations detrimentally impacted their society through heavy land use changes. Aren’t we supposed to learn from the past?

Yet for some reason this article thinks that there is a need to leap to the conclusion that everything heading our way in the future will be catastrophic. That there is no question that every rain, every snowfall, every cold day, every hot day, every shift in the ocean and so on, has come under the influence of human changes to such a degree that there is a need for immediate reaction to abate the unknown future disasters. That makes no sense to me. Especially, as it should be obvious to all that the severe changes which some would like to implement will lead to large negative consequences for the population of this planet. The poorest of that population will be the ones to suffer first, if the radical changes which have been proposed are undertaken.

soliton wave in the Pacific

what drives this wave. Is it an independent structure that could be driven by centripetal forces of the global spin and somehow becomes free from other oceanic forces and attractors? and I just looked up the word soliton, my brain functions are working.

Further thoughts. …so what would set this process in motion? How often do they occur?

ps…if anyone is wondering what this little post was about, it had to do with seeing someone use the word “soliton” wave in a post at WUWT. There was no definition given to the word, but there was a few clues that led me to think about what the process might entail. What I first wrote above was the first thoughts I had as I tried to define what the word could mean. Then I looked up the definition and saw that I had come to an accurate description of how a soliton wave worked, in large part. I actually had several other thoughts and they were also correct. Because I had looked up the definition prior to writing them down, I didn’t add them in with my first thought that starts this post.

grand minimum

Interesting topic, I would rate the catastrophic global warming argument as the number one dangerous science fraud that we have ever been confronted with. The potential for harm to many is huge. There are two sides to this. The first is economic. The amount of money that is being wasted worldwide on the great climate unknowns is staggering. That same money could have been used in practical down to earth applications which would have benefited many, and would have continued benefits over time. As it is only a small portion of the money thrown at the climate change issue has real value. Most of it is wasted value.

The second looming danger stems from the strong probability that a solar grand minimum is near at hand, around 6 years away +/-. The Sun is currently showing changes that modern

technology has never witnessed before. This is a first for all of man,s great sensing equipment in space to record and then analyze. Here is the rub though. All major governments of the world are caught up in the catastrophic global warming lie. All of their efforts are thus faced in the wrong direction if a strong global cooling takes place. In the past these grand minimums have always led to hardship for mankind. With today,s technology and resources, there is no need for a grand minimum to be as serious a problem as it was 2 centuries earlier or in the ones prior where the event killed many due to crop disruptions, and the fact that cold is hard on life forms. Yet if we have our backs turned away from the potential for cooling, then the cooling can impact us with greater force. There are some people in the world who see this as a good thing in that it could lead to the deaths of many. To those people such a solar grand minimum leading to a reduction of worldwide population is seen as a blessing. To those who will suffer and lose their lives during such an event, they surely will not look upon it as a blessing. The big unknown is how deep will this next grand minimum be. This is an unknown factor. However there is reason to believe that it could reach a Maunder Minimum level of cold. Look up the Maunder Minimum to get some understanding of the consequences. One can also read about the other grand minima throughout history to see that society has been impacted by these events many times before. The fall of the Roman Empire happened during a gm. Napoleon,s massive army was defeated by the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800s as he marched through Russia. There were very few survivors to make it back to France. Interesting how these things work.