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New Madrid Fault Zone 2019 Prediction

April 16, 2019

This post has to do with the possibility of the next large quake on the New Madrid Fault hitting the Midwest towards the end of this year. I have outlined the main reasons why I have come to this conclusion below. I have spent the last 11 years studying climate related material. I became interested in quakes after the Great Tohoku Quake of ( the expanded pics of the JG/U 2 K graph below are illustrating the deep temp drops of the Northern Hemisphere. Note the deep drops at 300 and 900 AD)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JGU 09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg JPEG Image 1873 × 726 pixels Scaled 94 300 ADJGU 09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg JPEG Image 1873 × 726 pixels Scaled 94 900 AD

The first major quake recorded on the New Madrid was at 1pm on December 25th of 1699, as noted by a French missionary in a group of explorers. This happened during the Maunder Minimum, and also during the latter stage of a solar minimum.  Dec 11th of 1811 was the next of a series of 3 large quakes on the New Madrid. The second quake was on January 23rd 1812, and the 3rd and largest struck on February 7th 1812. This takes place during the Dalton Minimum, and right at the low point of SC 5.

Other approximate years with large quakes on the NMSZ were in AD300, AD900 and AD1450. Now take a look at the JG/U 2K temp graph and see what it shows is happening to global temps for each of those 3 quakes. All three occurred during an obvious down turn in global temps. The year 1450 is a recognized grand minimum. The other two are at the very least a Gleissberg cycle. The one around 300 AD is certainly a GM which looks like it would have rivaled the Maunder GM. It affects temps for around 60 years. The sharp drop around 900 AD is what I would call a quarter note of around 15 years in length, and so likely a Gleissberg cycle. It would be interesting if it the state of the solar cycle could be determined to see if those 3 large quakes happened in the midst of the solar minimum. Other moderately strong quakes were on January 4th in 1843, at the solar minimum, and on October 31st 1895. This last one occurs after the maximum of SC 13 and 8 years prior to the solar minimum. Most recent was on November 9th 1968 two plus years after the solar minimum. An interesting footnote is that this occurs around 3 or 4 months after the peak of SC 20 when sunspots rapidly drop 60% from that peak as seen on Dr Svalgard’s high res ssn graph.  … http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/bilder_presse/09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg

 

 

So commonality with all of the major quakes on the NMSZ is they all strike mainly in the winter, close to or during the solar minimum, and either during a solar grand minimum, during a Gleissberg cycle, or in the last case after a rapid plunge in sunspots. Which raises the question in my mind is the next New Madrid quake now close at hand and ready to strike in this upcoming winter? If not this winter, then potentially next winter which would place it slightly after the end of this current minimum. It is clear to see that this year 2019 will be the heart of the solar minimum. The solar minimum is certainly low and prolonged as the last one was in 2008/09. In 2008 a moderately strong quake hit on the Wabash Fault Zone, close to the New Madrid Zone. Alternatively the solar minimum at the end of SC 25 will be the next likely timing for a large quake on the NMSZ, if  SC 25 remains as low or lower than SC 24. Does this warrant issuing a warning to the proper emergency agencies to be on stand by alert, and/or to issue a general alert to the population at risk?

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