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Solar Flood Pattern comment 6 10 17

June 10, 2017

Once again a post and the following comments sparked a thought in me which has led to as insight. An insight which I think has merit for holding further clues to the answers we all seek. I reead the comments around 1 am this morning. As I did a new thought popped up in regards to the graphs which I have viewed hundreds of times before in attempts to find clues/meaning of some significance. So here we go.

As some of you likely know, I am interested in the possible flood cycle pattern of the West Coast of US. This is the base which has allowed me to gain footing in the world of climate change. I also have several memories from my younger days of the major floods of 1955/56 and 1964/65. Wim Rost’s 11:38 pm comment was the spark for this. His comment on the importance of understanding regional influences was the key as I have come to think the same in that regard. It made me think of the summer of 1957. In that year my father took my brother and myself on our first fishing trip for steelhead on the Trinity River in Northern California, an exciting venture for us boys.

We went in late July as that is when the earliest of the runs would form up to move in off of the ocean. The weather was hotter than a firecracker, the hottest weather which I had ever felt with temps hitting into 110 to 116 degrees F. It is the heat/hot spell that is key here. The flood of 1955/56 had struck around 20 months prior to this heat wave hitting the same region. That made me wonder “Can I find other examples of a similar pattern of flood winter followed by heat wave within 2 years”. The answer is a resounding Yes. I should have seen this before, but the dots never connected. Here is what I see.

Almost every solar minimum produces an above average wet winter on the West Coast which will range anywhere from moderately heavy to flood level rains as we saw in this last winter. The process is solar minimum + heavyrains/floods+within 2 years of this there will be a temperature peak on global temps. To follow along with the following references please open a copy of the UAH temp graph as that is what I am using here. UAH starts in 1979 so the mid 1970s solar minimum is missing. There is also something there in the mid 1970s which may be unique, will have to think further on that.

The start then is the winter of 1985/86 and solar minimum = low temps on UAH and moderately heavy rains in that winter= leads to a peak temp on UAH in Dec/Jan 1988. Next is the winter of 1996/97 +solar minimum= low UAH temp + semi biblical rains/flooding= leads to a temp peak around March 1998. The next is 2007/08 close to solar minimum= UAH low temp + moderately heavy rains/light flooding= leads to a peak temp around February of 2010.

Now going back prior to UAH I went to the Hadley[1850/2010} to see if I could see the same pattern, and sure enough it can be plainly seen. Working backwards in time the winter of 1964/65 close to solar minimum= low temp on Hadley+ massive flooding= leads to a temp peak around Jul/Aug 1966 and an interesting quick zig zag afterwards. Next is the winter of 1955/56 close to solar minimum= low temp on Hadley+severe flooding= similar to 1964/65 rapid upswing in temps, an initial temp peak around Jul/Aug {my steelhead fishing trip} 1957, although this is also followed by a quick zig zag and a higher peak around 6 months later. Next is the winter of 1946/47 {this is the pivot point to cooling 1946/47 to 1976/77, imo} several years after solar minimum but right after a rapid rise to a max, an equally quick drop occurs close towards minimal conditions= low temp on Hadley+heavy rains and moderate area flooding=temp peak on Hadley around Sept of 1948. An interesting peak as otherwise temps drop steadily from early 1945 to early 1951. Looking back further just exposed another clue to this puzzle. I have been assuming solar/flood correlation, although there is to a certain degree. However, now that I look into the 1930s and the 1920s I see what now appears to be a 9 year cycle running through all of this. In both decades, which is the main warming trend 1915/16 to 1946/47, the wet/flood winter cycle strikes after the solar minimum by 2 to 4 years, but always on a solar dip/Hadley low temp which is then followed by a further Hadley temp peak less then 2 years later, actually around 18 to 20 months from what I can see. Could this be a lunar cycle as a main component? I will need more time to look further back. Plus several other avenues of thought have come up as well.

Lastly, what does all of this portend for the future next several years? Is this last heavy rain winter indicating a new temp peak around mid to late 2018? Or will there be one more heavy winter coming up at the end of this year along with a subsequent drop of temps on UAH between now and then? Otherwise, if Feb 2017 is presumed to be the low temp point/flood pattern, then late 2018 would be a high temp point. That doesn’t seem right to me as the solar minimum is still approaching, but the solar minimum may now shift to arriving after the wet/flood pattern, as in 1920s/30s/40s solar minimum arrives first followed by the wet/flood pattern, 1950s/60s/70s/80s/90s/00s solar minimum and wet/flood pattern very close to each other, and now the pattern may have changed to wet/flood comes first followed by solar minimum. That is something to watch in the years to come.

Temps should be shown as dropping on the monthly UAH in the months ahead, or this might mean that we are about to see a step change in global temps in the near future, or this could also be pointing to one more heavy winter coming up. That would fit with historical patterns as there are typically 1 or 2 moderate to strong winters prior to any main flood winter, and every flood winter is followed by a moderate to strong winter. I stated this 3.5 years ago when I first was putting the pieces together on these potential correlations. The winter of 2017/18 as the main winter in this cycle would mean a temp peak would show up around mid to late 2018. The end for now. There will be a bit more to add later on.

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