My analysis of the Sun/Ocean/ENSO connection
Postscript to my comment…I need to put up two charts for viewers or it will be very hard to ascertain what I am getting at. The first graph was posted by David Archibald at WUWT under the link further down the page, which is showing sun spot numbers in the North and South Hemispheres of the Sun. The second chart is NOAA’s monthly MEI chart depicting warm/cool trends in the ENSO regions of the Pacific Ocean…
Thanks for your post today. You have laid out the right ingredients to fire my thoughts and form a clearer picture within. Vukcevic’s post above yours also added to what I am about to point out. I have always felt that there must be a firm connection between solar and ocean interactions. Several years ago I noticed a potential correlation between ssn dominance in the N/S hemispheres of the Sun and changes in the MEI from warm to cool. The Silso page is where I first noted this, but their chart of the hemispheric changes is low resolution as compared to what you just posted with your 30 year chart of N/S ssn shifts. Because of some ambiguity in the connection using the low resolution Silso chart, I have kept the thought to myself for the last several years. Now I can flesh out the connection using your high res 30 year chart. Although, now I can more clearly see that there is most likely some 3rd component to what i am about to outline as there are still some sections that do not mesh, likely a lunar connection. Here we go.
Starting prior to 1985, which is close to the solar minimum, the MEI enters into a weak cool phase. This changes in early 1986 to a warm phase, and by the end of 1986 both solar hemispheres rise swiftly with the South ssn leading the North ssn. This leads to a peak El Nino around June of1987. By May of 1988 the North ssn rides above the South ssn, and the MEI has dropped into a cool trend which lasts until 1990. The North ssn peaks in early 1989 and swiftly drops, and the La Nina peaks around the beginning of 1989 and fades away through 1989. At the very end of 1989 the South ssn rises above the North ssn and the MEI starts to warm. The South ssn stays above the North ssn all the way to 1993. There is a long warm phase/El Nino from 1990 to 1993, when the warm phase dips low as the North ssn moves above the South ssn in the beginning of 1993/ Both hemispheres are dropping towards the minimum. At the end of 1993 the South ssn moves above the North ssn, and the MEI warm phase grows back to an El Nino which ends in early 1995 as the Sun is once again close to it’s minimum. There is now a 16 month cool phase/La Nina. Around Oct of 1996. both hemispheres start to rise with the South ssn slightly leading the North ssn. The MEI enters a rapid warm phase/El Nino, the 1997/98 Big One. In early 1998 The South ssn drops for a few months while the North ssn continues to rise. Around April of 1998 the MEI crosses back into cool phase/La Nina.Then the North ssn dominates until early 2000, note the little warm spike on the MEI in early 2000 as the hemisphere ssn are equal. The North ssn once again rises above the South ssn until early 2001, and the MEI is mostly cool phase/La Nina with a brief warm phase in early 2001 then a brief cool phase. In mid 2001 the North ssn is now dropping while the South ssn soars. The MEI takes off into a warm phase/El Nino until mid 2005, then a brief cool phase and back to warm phase/El Nino until very early 2007. The South ssn prevails over the North ssn the entire time from mid 2001 to early 2007, except for a brief moment in early 2004 when the North ssn rises briefly while the South ssn is descending, note the little cool phase spike on the MEI in early 2004. This reads like a book. Now we come to the solar minimum and the MEI runs cool phase/La Nina up to very early 2009. From early 2009 to early 2010 there is an El Nino that I can not explain. In early 2010 to early 2012 the MEI rapidly enters La Nina. The North ssn has risen rapidly above a weak rising South ssn from 2010 to 2012. The North ssn drops just before 2012 to meet the lower positioned South ssn around April/May of 2012. There is a rapid but short El Nino spike, followed by a quick back and forth North ssn over South ssn several times. Note the MEI quickly cools warms cools warms cools. We are close to the end of this now. Lastly, around March of 2013 the North ssn flatlines while the South ssn soars high. The MEI has been in warm phase/El Nino ever since. The Earth has had well above average temps ever since 2013. And that is how you correlate the interaction between the Sun, the oceans, and global temperature on this planet.
I would bet that by looking at the past history of the MEI, I would be able to outline which hemisphere of the Sun was ssn dominant over the entire record of the MEI. One last remark, note that the North ssn continues to track sideways while the South ssn is plunging. Thus the North ssn is now just peeking above the South ssn. If this continues, then the MEI should head towards a cool phase/La Nina in the very near future. It will be of interest to see how long this takes. The plunging South ssn is certainly headed towards it’s minimum as can be seen by looking at the path shown in the previous two solar cycles. The North ssn should follow around 2 years from now, although I would have to call the current behavior of the North ssn unusual. What might that portend?
Thank you David Archibald and Vukcevic for sharing your thoughts. These are my thoughts in return. There is more that I could add later after further contemplation.