OK, here goes a long thought from the unusual one. I am still quite a bit tired. I have not slept well for weeks, but with some nice fresh coffee I should be able to get the main thrust of this argument laid out in a reasonable fashion. I also forgot about daylight savings time, which always affects
me adversely for a few days.
My first epiphany in my climate change study came early on. The first time that I looked at a solar min max chart, it only took a minute or so to realize that the 9 year flood cycle in the Pacific Northwest was linked to the solar minimums. The realization sparked my thoughts as I realized that I might do well connecting the dots as I progressed in the study, and I became hooked into following this path to see where it would lead to. There have been further small successes along the path, and two nights ago I believe that I may have found the “key” to the Great Climate Change Argument. So, here we go. This is my 6th year putting my mind into this endeavour. Strange the 6th of anything has often had significance in my life.
The core to this has to do with the Sun, and an obvious thought that probably first came to me around 4 years ago when looking at the Solar cycle charts, and prior to coming here to WUWT to read further. The question arose inside ‘why wouldn’t the high strong solar maximums that started in the 1940s and then continued up to 2003 be the reason for the warming trend that has been experienced since the late1970s. Everyone seemed to agree that the Sun is a very stable entity, and that the relatively small change of 0.1% from max to min could not possibly account for the observed warming. On top of that the Sun cycles clearly did not appear to fit in with the pattern of the warming trend. Several times I looked at temps charts and the solar cycle chart to eke out a possible link. Nothing came to mind, zero links. I also looked multiple times at ENSO and solar, and at ENSO, temps, and solar. Still there was no way to link or wiggle match any of the charts. I even made a comment some 3 weeks ago through my Disqus account at The Telegraph site, where I once again brought up the argument that the Sun must be influencing the oceans and that there had to be some ocean offset that allowed for the heat to arise at a later date in time. I was arguing with one ‘Blathra’ who occasionally joins the conversation there. I have a suspicion that ‘Blathra’ could be Ed Davies. Still, I wasn’t able to find a proper answer when he asked ‘how long does the heat hide, before reemerging?’. That all changed 2 nights ago.
Late Friday evening, as I finished the reading for the day at WUWT, I had the thought to straighten up a few folders where I save stuff. As I was in the process of doing that, once again I found myself comparing several charts to refresh my thoughts. I took the chart of the Multivariate ENSO Index and set it on the desktop. Then I put a solar cycle chart from pics into the preview so that I could then compare the two. I could not find the copy of Dr Svalgaard,s great high resolution chart at the time. The other solar charts which I had were of a coarser image. I went online and saved a recent solar chart from Dr Hathaway, which had a better resolution and current data. As I perused the combination of the two charts and puzzled over where to start to find a first puzzle piece connection, the first connection came into view. My thought had been to use the grand max of 1959 as the first piece. That should have been the easiest one to fit into some other piece on the MEI. And then I saw a fit. The grand max of 1959 fit with the El Nino of 1990, which began right at the end of 1989. The connection was a spacing of 30 years +/-1. The reason why no ones connect the Sun with the warming is that the warming from the Sun enters into the oceans and then comes out of the oceans 30 years later. Then I started examining the MEI for further connections, and there they were. I started with El Ninos and solar maxs. Every one was there, solar max…El Nino starts. I quickly glanced at a few of the minimums and sure enough, solar minimum…La Nina starts. I started writing down the sequences and improving my approach to the exercise. Then I noticed that there were a few events that did not readily connect with the La Nina. All of the major El Ninos were looking good though. I knew that I had found something. Inspiration grew! Then I thought that I should look once more for Dr Svalgaard,s higher res chart. I had a little trepidation with that thought as his chart had refuted a previous ‘connect the dots’ idea that I had. Plus I had already left my cryptic message up above saying that ‘I found something’. Yet, I knew full well that I had to use Dr Svalgaard,s work, or I would be deceiving myself. I found his chart and went to work, and BINGO. It went way beyond my expectations. Every move and tweak on the MEI had the right 30 year phase offset pattern, and I do mean every little move. Connections that I could not make with Dr Hathaway,s chart were completely verified with Dr Svalgaard,s work. Next step, here is the data connections. I use the prefixes ‘pre’ and ‘post’ to denote a shift which occurs before or after the top of a max or the bottom of a min.
Also note that, Note that the use of Nino and Nina only implies the changes in the MEI and not that the conditions for Nino or Nina were actually fulfilled.
SSN pre Min-1919/20 Nina-1949/50
SSN Min -1924/25 Nina-1954/55
SSN Max -1927/29 Nino-1957/58
SSN pre Min-1929/30 Nina-1959/60
SSN min -1934/35 Nina-1964/65
SSN pre Max-1935/36 Nino-1965/66
SSN postMin-1936/37 Nina-1967/68
SSN Max -1938/39 Nino-1968/69
SSN pre Min-1940/41 Nina-1970/71
SSN Min -1943/44 Nina-1973/74
SSN Max -1947/48 Nino-1977/78
SSN postMax-1948/49 Nino-1978/79
1950/51-spike down Nina-1981
spike up-1951 Nino-1981
1952-spike down Nina1982
spike up-1952 Nino-1982
1952.1/2-spike down Nina-1982.1/2
SSN post spike 1951/52 Nino-1982/83
1954-spike down Nina-1984
spike up-1954 Nino-1984
SSN Min-1954/55 Nina-1984/85
SSN pre Max-1957 Nino-1986/87
1958/59 spike down Nina-1988/89
SSN Grand Max-1959/60 Nino+ -1990/95
SSN postMin-1966/67 Nina-1996/97
SSN Max-1967/68 Nino-1997/98 El Grande
1968 spike down Nina-1998/99
spike up-1970 Nino-2000
1970-spike down Nina-200/01
SSN Max end-1971 Nino-2001
SSN pre Min-1972 Nina-2002
SSN post Max-1972/73 with continued up spikes Nino-2002/03/04/05
1974 spike down Nina-2004
SSN Min-1976 Nina-2006
SSN pre Max-1977 Nino-2007
SSN post Min-1977 Nina-2007
SSN Max 1978-itty bitty Nino-2008-itty bitty
1978 spike down Nina-2008
SSN Max-1979 Nino-2009/10
SSN pre Min-1981 Nina-2010/11
SSN Max-1982 Nino-2012
SSN pre Min-1983 early Nina-2013
spike up-1983 Nino-2013
SSN pre Min-1983 Nina-2013 late
spike up-1983 Nino-2013 late
SSN Min-1984 Nina-2014
and that is all she wrote for now, as the saying goes. That is every twist and turn of the MEI as correlated with Dr Svalgaard,s great work in his high res solar cycle chart.
Further, as I consider this to be accurate that means that I should now be able to make a prediction for future El Nino and La Nina. Here it is. It looks like a definite la Nina for now. That is an easy prediction, See I am already spot on with that prediction. The first swing back towards an El Nino will be early next year, but that should be an El Nado and short. After that it should be a strong La Nina all the way till late 2016 and then another short small El Nado. Late 2016 should be the beginning of a true El Nino that will go through 2018, and then back to La Nina. The winter of 2016/17 is very probable for a very heavy rain for the Pacific Northwest. I will leave my prediction there for now. I am tired, and my eyes are bugging out from trying to follow the year by year chart by Dr Svalgaard, which has no larger indicators to show where one might be such as 1970, 1980, 1990, etc etc.
Here are some other impressions from this exercise.The orbital shifts of the Earth with the consequent changes in w/m2 probably influences the size of Nino and Nina. Is this connected with the stadium wave theory? The 30 year pattern could be further influenced by planetary configurations and lunar tidal forcings. The MEI shows 1/4, 1/8, and 1/16 cycles very well. That reminds me of the conversation with Greg Goodman on the ‘Why Reanalysis Isn’t….” post from May of last year. In discussing that post, I had noted that there appeared to be a short cyclical pattern of approximately 3.5 years. Greg Goodman showed some of his great work, and that information of his added to my thoughts. Bob Tisdale is the obvious choice to flesh out what happens in the ocean with oceanic cyclical patterns after the heat enters therein. How does it end up to be a 30 year pattern? Dr Svalgaard, Dr Norman Page, and Vukvecic should be able to confirm and augment solar, gcr, lunar, and/or planetary influences to further flesh out the full details of how and why. That, of course, will be dependent on how they view this information that I am relating. Overall, this is for everyone who has contributed here at this site. Obviously there are other dynamics at play here. I could go on for several more pages I think, but I am going to stop here. I am tired and looking at all of those tiny little lines on the solar chart has me close to seeing tiny little objects everywhere.
This should allow for anyone to predict future MEI conditions, and also hindcast MEI to ssn and vice versa.
https://theconversation.com/environment-policy-must-embrace-uncertainty-23269Considering how this is only the 4th wettest winter that the UK has experienced, it seems disingenuous to think that statistics and or models will lead to a better understanding of the future vs combining modern maths with historical records and data. In this article the assumption is automatically made that this current wet cycle is induced by human aided changes to long term weather patterns. Yet looking at the long term data sets where it can readily be seen that heavier rainfalls have occurred in the past, how would this article then justify its position of human influenced changes in rainfall patterns? I agree that man has changed the landscape around the world, and I would also agree that those land use changes lead to regional changes in the water cycle and local temperature changes. Some of that will have some level of impact on the overall system. In the US, the Dust Bowl was a prime example of how man caused changes can combine with natural weather patterns to induce a much more severe event. There are also examples from thousands of years ago where nations detrimentally impacted their society through heavy land use changes. Aren’t we supposed to learn from the past?
Yet for some reason this article thinks that there is a need to leap to the conclusion that everything heading our way in the future will be catastrophic. That there is no question that every rain, every snowfall, every cold day, every hot day, every shift in the ocean and so on, has come under the influence of human changes to such a degree that there is a need for immediate reaction to abate the unknown future disasters. That makes no sense to me. Especially, as it should be obvious to all that the severe changes which some would like to implement will lead to large negative consequences for the population of this planet. The poorest of that population will be the ones to suffer first, if the radical changes which have been proposed are undertaken.
what drives this wave. Is it an independent structure that could be driven by centripetal forces of the global spin and somehow becomes free from other oceanic forces and attractors? and I just looked up the word soliton, my brain functions are working.
Further thoughts. …so what would set this process in motion? How often do they occur?
Interesting topic, I would rate the catastrophic global warming argument as the number one dangerous science fraud that we have ever been confronted with. The potential for harm to many is huge. There are two sides to this. The first is economic. The amount of money that is being wasted worldwide on the great climate unknowns is staggering. That same money could have been used in practical down to earth applications which would have benefited many, and would have continued benefits over time. As it is only a small portion of the money thrown at the climate change issue has real value. Most of it is wasted value.
The second looming danger stems from the strong probability that a solar grand minimum is near at hand, around 6 years away +/-. The Sun is currently showing changes that modern
technology has never witnessed before. This is a first for all of man,s great sensing equipment in space to record and then analyze. Here is the rub though. All major governments of the world are caught up in the catastrophic global warming lie. All of their efforts are thus faced in the wrong direction if a strong global cooling takes place. In the past these grand minimums have always led to hardship for mankind. With today,s technology and resources, there is no need for a grand minimum to be as serious a problem as it was 2 centuries earlier or in the ones prior where the event killed many due to crop disruptions, and the fact that cold is hard on life forms. Yet if we have our backs turned away from the potential for cooling, then the cooling can impact us with greater force. There are some people in the world who see this as a good thing in that it could lead to the deaths of many. To those people such a solar grand minimum leading to a reduction of worldwide population is seen as a blessing. To those who will suffer and lose their lives during such an event, they surely will not look upon it as a blessing. The big unknown is how deep will this next grand minimum be. This is an unknown factor. However there is reason to believe that it could reach a Maunder Minimum level of cold. Look up the Maunder Minimum to get some understanding of the consequences. One can also read about the other grand minima throughout history to see that society has been impacted by these events many times before. The fall of the Roman Empire happened during a gm. Napoleon,s massive army was defeated by the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800s as he marched through Russia. There were very few survivors to make it back to France. Interesting how these things work.
I awoke a short while ago from a bit of restful sleep. As I lay there a stream of thought entered into the forefront. A piece of a puzzle that had been missing became clear to me. I started to go back to sleep, but realized that I was not likely to reenter sleep at this time. The thought had been too stimulating. It had keyed me upward. Then as I thought further about the experience, I came to the decision that I should tell this story, as for too many times in my life I have let things that should have been said or done unfinished. Some of these pieces that were left unfinished had negative consequences for me and for others at times. I regret some of those consequences deeply to this day. I will start from the beginning.
All of my life from an early age, I have been aware of change/s. That includes change within me, changes in society, and changes in nature at times. The first awareness of change was in 1956. I turned 6 years old in May of that year. Around that time was the first inklings of a different stream of thought from within. That summer, which followed the great flood of 1955/56 in the Pac NW, I learned my first observable lesson of what nature can and will do at times. It can cause large changes. In this case a wonderful redwood stump fort alongside of Lagunitas Creek in Samuel P Taylor Park had been a victim of the winter flood. This would have been the first season where I was to be allowed to join the older boys and play in that fort. Now it was but a shell of it,s former glory. It wasa harsh yet clear lesson about the power of nature and that nature changes the natural world. The second part to understanding change in the years 1956/57 was that I had started to become aware of changes within me, of changes within my awareness and mentality. This was shortly after the solar minimum
The second point of advancement in this process came in 1966. I turned 16 that year. This was the year after the great flood of 1964/65. Which was also around the time of the solar minimum. In the years prior, I had been steadily working towards increased understanding of the spiritual side of myself. I had made good gains along the way by this point in time. Working together with my brother the two of us were on the dge of discovery. The main factor in this was that which was in me. I was the catalyst, but added to that was the strength of love and trust that brothers can sometimes have. We shared that love and unbounded trust. Then, all of that came to an end. My brother tirned 18 that year. The Vietnam war was was rapidly escalating and my brother was a dropout. He made the choice to leave the country. He went to NY and then on to Spain. I was devastated. I wanted to go with him, but he pointed out that our parents would have also been devastated, if I had also left. I could understand that. Yet now my partner, my key to further progress on the path had been taken from me. The last two years of high school saw a drop in my grades as a consequence. Yet because I had made so much progress on the path, in an honest truthful search I was given an unexpected wondrous gift. At the end of the year of 1966 at the age of 16 the Holy Spirit came to me one night. Up to that point in time in my prayers, I had always asked for two things for myself. I had prayed for the gift of faith and for understanding/wisdom. Both of those requests were filled at the end of that year. Although, the gift of faith turned into the gift of no longer needing faith, as understanding replaced the need for faith. That is how that works. Then early in 1967 there was another major understanding/gift that had correlations to one of my ancestors, St Theresa of Avila, Spain.
The third point of change came in 1976/77. This was the decade where the 9 year flood cycle was broken. That is the time of the climate shift to warming. In that year I faced death three times, where I did not see where I would live through the next minute/s of my life. Obviously, I survived all of them. The first event occurred around 6/6/1976. There would be a record of the accident to pinpoint the exact day. Part of what caused the accident was due to the drought from the previous winter. That evening there was a light rain, which was the first rain in 7 or 8 months. The other part to that accident was due to my drinking. Six people had died going off at that same spot on the Klamath River where I went off. My one thought as I went off was “goodbye baby”. Then 2 months after that in August, and 2 more months once again in October, the other 2 near death moments occurred, one from being in a runaway truck loaded with lumber, and the other from being chased down a mountain by a 50,000 pound rolling pin of Ponderosa pine. I should have never told my wife about the rolling pin. She insisted that I stop working in the woods, but we needed the money. As a result she took the children and went to Sacramento in November of 1976 to stay with her parents in protest. In one of the greatest mistakes of my life, I called an end to our marriage. In the beginning of 1977, I had a very unusual aware dream. Part of that dream comes to meet me in 1986. This was also the years around the solar minimum.
The 4th point of change happens in 1985/86. There had been a heavy rain the year before, around the solar minimum. I had been run over by a vehicle in SF and had my right arm and leg broken in multiple places. Then at the end of 1985, there was a chance for an upswing in my life. My family opened a new restaurant. I went back to work as the kitchen manager, which I was very proficient at. Although we were soon faced with bankruptcy right away from problems elsewhere with the restaurants we had. I worked like a man possessed, which helped me heal and re-strengthen my broken body. In 1986 a lovely woman from Ireland came to work for us. She was the woman who I had seen in my aware dream in early 1977. The fact that she was from Ireland made complete sense in that my dream took place on foreign soil. I knew that it was foreign soil by the vegetation and the smell of the air during the aware dream. Ireland thus made complete sense to me, and brought wonderment to me once again as I thought ‘how could this be and why?’. We survived the bankruptcy.
The fifth point of change came in 1996/97, the year of the semi biblical flood in No Cal and So Oregon. In January of 1996 I had an unbidden thought come to me that there was going to be a huge rain coming with the next winter. I then told quite a few people about this, because the thought came from a certain spot within me. Thoughts that come from this spot, come to pass or are correct in what they show me. That is why I was telling others about the premonition. I had never foretold a weather event before in my life. This was a first. In the fall of that year we had lost the valuable lease on our SF theater district restaurant. This was due to being stabbed in the back by a scheming lawyer. Once again the future had become tenuous for me. The winter set in and a semi biblical rain event occurred. My father had a great opportunity to acquire a lease option on a 2 acre property in Marin with an existing restaurant on it. Prospects seemed great, except there was a question of money. My dad struggled to raise the funds to do a full renovation. I suggested that we just spruce up the place and open the doors. He was not willing to do that. Later in 1977 I moved in with my folks into their Marin house. My dad was trying to play options to raise money. he had a partner who showed him how to get away from using brokers by going online. Being that I was now living with him, he told me one morning that I was now going to learn about the stock market. Throughout my adult life he had tried to get me interested in the stock market. He figured that my gifted mentality could aid him in this endeavour. So here we were. After 6 days of listening and looking over his shoulder, I told him that I could make sense of what I was seeing. So he gave me the go ahead to make a decison and place an order. He had about $36,000 left. He said that I could use $2,000 for myself and he would follow with the rest. I made an SP 500 move that was the opposite of what he had been thinking. I explained that I saw a good spot for the next 48 hours. In 36 hours my $2,000 had increased to $12,000, and his closer to the money option was now worth $290,000. He had gained over $250,000. I said sell and he said wait one more day and it could be a million. I again said sell and he then said ” so the student is going to teach the master?”. The market reversed. He still made about $20,000. My 12k had gone back to the 2k of his money, and that was it. He had killed the golden goose. Shortly after I moved to Oregon to stay with my younger brother. That was also the year of the solar minimum.
And now for the elusive 6th point of change. I had never connected the dots to see it prior to my waking up several hours ago. The years are 2006/07. In 2006 I was fired from a good job by my boss, who was a ‘master’ at everything he had ever read or thought about. The job was color matching paints and stains for refinishers and contractors, and I found it fascinating. I had no experience at it, but soon became very good at it. In the 2.5 years in which I had worked for him I had produced 2,600 successful color matches/formulas. However, as usual, there was a problem right from the beginning, which stemmed from a lawsuit between him and a partner who shared the other half of the warehouse they had purchased together. His ‘partner’ in the building was crazy enough to the point where I brought my gun to the warehouse and kept it there. Shortly after being fired in August of 2006, I woke up one morning to find that I could no longer see out of my right eye. I lived like that for 5 years, afterwards. I soon took a job though, as a crewman for a standby for oil spills in the Carquinez Straits area around the refineries there. It was a 24 hour sit by job in a building at the end of a pier. That winter in 2006/07 there was a heavy rain where the waters of the Sacramento River actually cut us off from the land for about 4 days. It made one a bit nervous to feel the sway in the wooden pier and the building. We had boats ready for escape, if necessary. The years 2006/07 were the end of the warming. The solar minimum was the following year.
That now brings me to my last thought for the evening or early morning. I have already stated more than once at different websites that the next California flood should be due around 2016/17 or perhaps 2017/18. Now after looking at the above record of how years ending in 6 have been the dominant turning point throughout my entire life, then I would have to predict that 2016 is a high probability year for the next point of change in nature and perhaps in myself. I can well imagine how strange all of this will be to any who read this. I would find this thought strange, if someone else presented it. Afterall, I am a skeptic as most here are. In fact without being skeptical from my early years, I could have never achieved the gains that I made in my spiritual growth, as they would have been built on a false foundation. Feel free to make any comment. I stand by what I wrote here. I feel very clear and strong minded at this time.
About 6 years ago, I had started smoking weed on a regular basis as something was causing me terrible sleep problems. I had lost several jobs because of the sleep problems. The sleep problems ended when I left the town of Benicia and moved into the mountains. Curiously, my blood pressure which had become high for the first time in my life while living in Benicia, also returned to normal within several months of living here in the mountains. Who knows why? Eleven days ago, I made the decision to clear the fumes from my mind. I want my full mentality back so that I can take the next step in re-educating myself further. I thank the many here who have shared great thought on this site and who have thus aided me in this endeavour. I am also very serious about this conversation, and the implications that it holds for the future well being of the world at large. The last coherent words that my mother spoke in her last day were to me. There were 6 of us visiting in her hospital room that day, three of my siblings, my father, myself, and a family friend. I was sitting on her right side. My mother was lost in her mind for the most part due to the morphine, which she hated. Suddenly, she reached over and grabbed my arm with what must have been all the stregth left to her weakened body. She looked straight into my eyes and asked ” Are the children safe?”. What could I say? I am an honest truthful man. Yet I had to answer back to my mother ” Yes the children are safe”. Then she drifted back into the morphine and random thoughts. That was her last day on Earth.
What should I be named? How old am I?
I opened my WordPress acct to help with my commenting. The only post I ever made on another website had to do with this ‘rock’ that I found in Jan 2012. The above pictures do not correspond to the number comments in my post, here is what I wrote…I found this in the early part of this year, while prospecting. The shape caught my eye as it sat on a gravel bar with hundreds of thousands of other rocks. At first I was thinking a type of geode or something similar, but after studying the characteristics of this shape, I came to believe that this is a complete creature that was trapped, perhaps in a rock slide, and then fossilized. So, I thought that this would be a good place to show this, as I know that some of you probably have skills along this line. 12/18…In picture #8 you can see the best example yet of what the surface texture looks like. I lightly moistened the surface and using morning sunlight I was able to highlight a section of the tiny peaks of the bumps from the reflection of the light through the water coating the texture. I should have mentioned this from the start, but all sides of the main body had this texture. I lightly polished the left side and the bottom. Otherwise this piece was not water worn. It must have been blasted out of the ocean-deposited sediment layers that make up much of the soil mass in the area. That would have happened either in the late 1800s, or in the 1920s/30s mining era. It had been kicked up onto a high bar in the river system, where only flood years would touch it. This would suggest that it didn’t travel too far from where it had been deposited. Actually, there is a 1,000 yd long cut in a red cliff face right across from where I live that is a mile upstream from where I found this. Locals have told me that the cliff yielded fossils, but it could come from several sources in that they really changed this landscape back in the 1800s. Entire ridges were blasted away to nothing in their search for gold. Pictures taken at the time show a completely devastated landscape. Almost no tree or bush left to be seen for miles up and down the Trinity river. For best viewing put the pics on your desktop.